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Air cargo freight rate improvements continued to narrow in April amid weakening demand, geopolitical tariff tensions and a drop in jet fuel prices.
While global air cargo volumes grew 4% year on year in April, global air cargo spot rates rose just 3% year on year, a second consecutive month of only a single-digit increase, said Xeneta, and a continuation of a narrowing of the growth rate.
Rates were up 17% in January, 10% in February and 6% in March.
“This slowdown aligns with weaker demand trends. Adding to the downward pressure on rates, jet fuel prices fell -24% year-on-year in the first three weeks of April,” said Xeneta.
“This drop, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, likely played a role in tempering overall spot rate growth.”
In addition to this, available capacity increased 3% compared to April 2024, and the dynamic load factor declined three percentage points month on month to 57%.
The dynamic load factor is Xeneta’s measurement of capacity utilisation based on volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity.
US tariff measures implemented on 2 April prompted shippers to engage in front-loading tactics, and there was a rush of air shipments from several Asian countries to North America.
This led to double-digit increases in both volume and spot rates out of Asia.
Notably, spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America jumped 13% month on month, while those from Northeast Asia rose 10%.
However, these gains began reversing in the second half of April following the announcement of a 90-day tariff pause and 145% retaliatory tariffs on China.
The largest monthly rate surge was observed on the North America – Northeast Asia corridor, rising 14%. This was largely driven by shippers rushing exports to China and Hong Kong amid fears of reciprocal tariffs.
US tariffs trigger air cargo spot rate surges in and out of Northeast Asia Source Xeneta
Source: Xeneta
Spot rates elsewhere were also in flux. Spot rates between the Middle East & Central Asia and Europe remained flat month-on-month but were down compared with last year, reflecting easing supply pressures from earlier Red Sea disruptions.
Transatlantic westbound rates, meanwhile, declined 7% from March, impacted by increased bellyhold capacity from summer flight schedules, as well as seasonal slowdowns during the Easter holidays and potential US tariff actions.
On the Northeast Asia–Europe corridor, fronthaul rates into Europe saw a slight month-on-month increase and were up 10% year on year. However, backhaul rates into Northeast Asia fell 17% compared to April 2024, as trade imbalances persisted.
Looking ahead, now that the de minimis exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong into the US has been removed, major trade lane disruption is expected for e-commerce.
“This is quite likely the calm before the storm. If the new de minimis set-up remains – and why would they change it after the investment the authorities have reportedly made – then this will undoubtedly negatively impact airfreight volumes from China to the US,” said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer.
“The traditional airfreight market will not be able to compensate for the decline in e-commerce volumes. Airlines will adjust their networks to this new reality and this, in turn, will have a beneficial impact for shippers around the world as they will see more capacity coming (back) to their market – but they still need viable trading conditions to enjoy the benefit of this opportunity.”
He added: “The likelihood of lower airfreight rates is better news for shippers and forwarders, but if shippers can’t sell their goods because of tariffs, that’s bad news for the macroeconomic picture and the need for airfreight. For most airfreight shipments, lower rates will not compensate for the tariffs that will have to be paid.”
Overall, van de Wouw said the macroeconomic picture will depend on how long the uncertainty lasts, but “the outlook currently looks quite daunting”.
“This is not about one industry being affected. This is about major trade lanes being affected, and we haven’t seen anything on this scale before,” he said.
Global air cargo spot rate extends its low single-digit increase in April 2025 Source Xeneta