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Air cargo braces as US ends China’s de minimis exemption

By Damian BrettDamian Brett2 May 2025

The US de minimis exemption for packages from China and Hong Kong ends today, with air cargo waiting to see how much of an impact it will have on the market.

The end of the exemption means that from 2 May, packages from China and Hong Kong worth less than $800 will no longer be able to enter the US duty-free and with minimal customs scrutiny.

They will now have to pay a 120% tariff rate or a flat fee of $100, due to rise to $200 at the start of June.

Last year, as many as 4m packages a day were entering the US under the de minimis exemption, up from 2.8m per day in 2023.

Online retailers such as Shein and Temu have been exploiting the loophole to sell goods cheaply to US consumers.

According to data firm Xeneta, approximately 50% of air cargo shipments on the China–US route is e-commerce, accounting for around 6% of global volumes.

“A sharp drop in demand is likely to challenge carriers’ capacity planning, with early signs already pointing to freighter flight cancellations and potential redeployments to other trade lanes,” it said.

“This is a double-edged sword. A decrease in demand on one of the key airfreight lanes between Asia Pacific and North America will have a big impact, but so too will the redeployment of capacity on a global level,” said Xeneta head of airfreight Niall van de Wouw.

“This may be a year when we grow weary of seeing the word ‘unprecedented’ in market performance statements. The macroeconomic picture will depend on how long the uncertainty lasts and what will be at the end of it, but the outlook currently looks quite daunting.

“This is not about one industry being affected. This is about major trade lanes being affected, and we haven’t seen anything on this scale before,” van de Wouw added.

Overall, he said it was too early to predict how large of an impact the development will have. The picture will be clearer when demand figures for May are released.

Forwaders have also warned of the administrative burden of processing the shipments.

”Customs duties aside, all shipments will, as of 2 May, be subject to a standard customs clearance process, with this in itself presenting an administrative nightmare,” Scan Global Logistics said in a market update.

 

”With elevated tariffs of 145% currently in place for China, the elimination of the de minimis exemption will significantly influence pricing strategies for e-commerce platforms and consumer purchasing behaviour” the forwarder added. “Companies such as Shein and Temu, which previously leveraged the de minimis threshold to offer low-cost goods, have already announced price increases.”

Ahead of the end of the exemption, the move already seemed to be having an impact on the market, although the US has also implemented tariffs of 145% on Chinese imports – other than some other tech products that have been exempt – making it hard to distinguish how much of an impact each of the two developments are having.

Figures released today by data provider WorldACD show that in the week running to 17 April, cargo volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US were down by around 15% year on year.

Meanwhile, sources indicate that spot market rates from Hong Kong to the US have fallen by just under $1 per kg since the end of April to around $4.40 per kg today.

At the start of this week, freight forwarder Dimerco reported that from the end of April, several freighter charters have been cancelled, while further cancellations are expected in the coming weeks.

“Overall, e-commerce shipment volume has dropped by approximately 50% since mid-April compared to the same period last year,” Dimerco said.

The company said major Chinese carriers were also considering cancelling services, although a final decision is still pending.

“If these cancellations go through, the already limited capacity from China to the US will be further reduced,” Dimerco said.

There are also concerns that any capacity withdrawn from China-US services could end up in other markets, risking pulling down rates on those trades if supply outstrips demand.

Indeed, Dimerco Express vice president, global sales and marketing Kathy Liu said that much of the freighter capacity from China/Hong Kong removed in recent weeks has been shifted to destinations like Nuevo Laredo in Mexico and other parts of Latin America, where demand has actually gone up, especially out of Mexico.

Demand out of Southeast Asia and Taiwan has stayed relatively stable – that’s likely due to the 90-day tariff exemption granted by the US government, which is giving some breathing room to shippers in those regions.

The US had tried to end the exemption in February, but customs did not have the systems in place to handle the number of packages being brought into the country and had to backtrack on its decision within a couple of days.

 

Last year, around 1bn packages were transported into the US under the exemption, with around 800m of these shipments arriving through international mail; express courier services such as UPS, DHL, and FedEx; or were transported as cargo on commercial airline flights.

Washington argues that criminals are using the exemption to smuggle illegal items, such as illicit drugs and weapons, or evade paying duties.

Xeneta: Air cargo rate growth narrows and the market outlook is daunting

By Rebecca JeffreyRebecca Jeffrey3 May 2025

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Copyright: AUUSanAKUL/ Shutterstock Downloaded July 28 2023

Air cargo freight rate improvements continued to narrow in April amid weakening demand, geopolitical tariff tensions and a drop in jet fuel prices.

While global air cargo volumes grew 4% year on year in April, global air cargo spot rates rose just 3% year on year, a second consecutive month of only a single-digit increase, said Xeneta, and a continuation of a narrowing of the growth rate.

Rates were up 17% in January, 10% in February and 6% in March.

“This slowdown aligns with weaker demand trends. Adding to the downward pressure on rates, jet fuel prices fell -24% year-on-year in the first three weeks of April,” said Xeneta.

“This drop, driven by ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainties, likely played a role in tempering overall spot rate growth.”

In addition to this, available capacity increased 3% compared to April 2024, and the dynamic load factor declined three percentage points month on month to 57%.

The dynamic load factor is Xeneta’s measurement of capacity utilisation based on volume and weight of cargo flown alongside available capacity.

US tariff measures implemented on 2 April prompted shippers to engage in front-loading tactics, and there was a rush of air shipments from several Asian countries to North America.

This led to double-digit increases in both volume and spot rates out of Asia.

Notably, spot rates from Southeast Asia to North America jumped 13% month on month, while those from Northeast Asia rose 10%.

However, these gains began reversing in the second half of April following the announcement of a 90-day tariff pause and 145% retaliatory tariffs on China.

The largest monthly rate surge was observed on the North America – Northeast Asia corridor, rising 14%. This was largely driven by shippers rushing exports to China and Hong Kong amid fears of reciprocal tariffs.

US tariffs trigger air cargo spot rate surges in and out of Northeast Asia Source Xeneta

Source: Xeneta

Spot rates elsewhere were also in flux. Spot rates between the Middle East & Central Asia and Europe remained flat month-on-month but were down compared with last year, reflecting easing supply pressures from earlier Red Sea disruptions.

Transatlantic westbound rates, meanwhile, declined 7% from March, impacted by increased bellyhold capacity from summer flight schedules, as well as seasonal slowdowns during the Easter holidays and potential US tariff actions.

On the Northeast Asia–Europe corridor, fronthaul rates into Europe saw a slight month-on-month increase and were up 10% year on year. However, backhaul rates into Northeast Asia fell 17% compared to April 2024, as trade imbalances persisted.

Looking ahead, now that the de minimis exemption for shipments from China and Hong Kong into the US has been removed, major trade lane disruption is expected for e-commerce.

“This is quite likely the calm before the storm. If the new de minimis set-up remains – and why would they change it after the investment the authorities have reportedly made – then this will undoubtedly negatively impact airfreight volumes from China to the US,” said Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer.

“The traditional airfreight market will not be able to compensate for the decline in e-commerce volumes. Airlines will adjust their networks to this new reality and this, in turn, will have a beneficial impact for shippers around the world as they will see more capacity coming (back) to their market – but they still need viable trading conditions to enjoy the benefit of this opportunity.”

He added: “The likelihood of lower airfreight rates is better news for shippers and forwarders, but if shippers can’t sell their goods because of tariffs, that’s bad news for the macroeconomic picture and the need for airfreight. For most airfreight shipments, lower rates will not compensate for the tariffs that will have to be paid.”

Overall, van de Wouw said the macroeconomic picture will depend on how long the uncertainty lasts, but “the outlook currently looks quite daunting”.

“This is not about one industry being affected. This is about major trade lanes being affected, and we haven’t seen anything on this scale before,” he said.

Global air cargo spot rate extends its low single-digit increase in April 2025 Source Xeneta

CMA CGM completes Air Belgium acquisition

By Rebecca JeffreyRebecca Jeffrey30 April 2025

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Air Belgium aircraft. Photo: Air Belgium

The CMA CGM Group has increased its stake in the airfreight sector by completing the acquisition of Air Belgium and its fleet of four freighters.

The Marseille-based shipping giant announced the transfer of assets from Air Belgium in a press release on 30 April.

CMA CGM Group gained approval for its binding takeover from the Brabant Wallon Commercial court on 27 March after it submitted a proposal on 19 March. The asset transfer agreement with the liquidator has also been concluded.

The acquisition includes Air Belgium’s aircraft capacity, comprising two Airbus A330-243Fs and two Boeing 747-8Fs.

The Air Belgium brand will maintain operations within the CMA CGM Group’s air cargo division and the aircraft will be operated from Belgium.

CMA CGM intends to use the additional capacity to create more tailored forwarding, shipping and logistics solutions.

Based in Paris-Charles de Gaulle, CMA CGM Air Cargo currently operates regular services with two Boeing 777F aircraft to Hong Kong and Shanghai and one Airbus A330F to Zhengzhou.

CMA CGM said its fleet will soon be reinforced by an additional 777F and further expanded from 2027 onwards with eight Airbus A350Fs.

This acquisition continues the 2021-2023 partnership between the airlines. During this period, CMA CGM Air Cargo had a deal with Air Belgium for the airline to operate its four A330Fs from Liège before it obtained its own French air operator certificate and established operations at Paris-Charles de Gaulle.

Alongside its European expansion, CMA CGM Group has established an airfreight hub in Chicago. This hub currently runs with two Boeing 777F aircraft operated by Atlas Air under the CMA CGM Air Cargo brand, with three additional aircraft due to be added.

These aircraft are expected to strengthen the Group’s presence on transpacific routes and support the expansion of its cargo activities in the American market.

 

72 pilots and 52 operational and support staff will also be retained from Air Belgium.

Damien Mazaudier, executive vice president of the air division at CMA CGM Group, stated: “The acquisition of Air Belgium marks an important step in the expansion of the CMA CGM Group’s air freight operations in Europe and worldwide.

“It immediately strengthens our air capacity while addressing current logistical challenges. By preserving skilled jobs and accelerating the development of our network, this operation demonstrates our commitment to our customers and our ability to anticipate market evolutions.”

Air Belgium’s operations had been in trouble for quite some time.

In September 2023, Air Belgium said it had decided to discontinue its own passenger business and focus exclusively on “cargo and ACMI for passenger and cargo flights” due to economic challenges that have resulted in the airline acquiring debt.

But while the airline underwent a judicial restructuring, it had been seeking investors to provide financial stability.

Originally, another company, Air One Belgium, gained approval for the takeover of Air Belgium’s cargo business in December but the proposal was later rejected.

The Nivelles enterprise court revoked the acquisition process, stating that the takeover by the Air One Belgium JV was taking too long and had therefore failed.

The court gave Air Belgium a final deadline of 27 March to find an alternative investor or face liquidation.

Air Cargo Demand Grows 4.4% in March

 

29 April 2025       No. 16

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for March 2025 global air cargo markets showing:

  • Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), increased by 4.4% compared to March 2024 levels (+5.5% for international operations), a historic peak for March.
  • Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), expanded by 4.3% compared to March 2024 (+6.1% for international operations).

“March cargo volumes were strong. It is possible that this is partly a front-loading of demand as some businesses tried to beat the well-telegraphed 2 April tariff announcement by the Trump Administration. The uncertainty over how much of the 2 April proposals will be implemented may eventually weigh on trade. In the meantime, the lower fuel costs—which are also a result of the same uncertainty—are a short-term positive factor for air cargo. And, within the temporary pause on implementation we hope that political leaders will be able to shift trade tensions to reliable agreements that can restore confidence in global supply chains,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:

  • March volumes typically rise after a lull in February, and this single-digit increase is in line with pre-COVID growth trends.
  • Jet fuel prices dropped 17.3% year-on-year, marking nine straight months of year-on-year declines.
  • The sharp rise in US tariffs and new trade rules, especially the 2 May ban on duty-free imports from China and Hong Kong, may have prompted companies and buyers to make purchases in advance to avoid significant import fees.
  • World industrial output grew 3.2% year-on-year, and trade volumes expanded 2.9%. Many key Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) indices fell: US inflation was 2.4%, down 0.4 points from February, EU CPI was 2.5% and Japan’s rate fell 0.1% to 3.6%. China remains in deflation but this eased to -0.1%.

Air cargo market in detail – March 2025

March 2025

(% year-on-year)             World share1     CTK        ACTK     CLF (%-pt)           CLF (level)

Total Market      100%     4.4%      4.3%      0.0%      47.5%

Africa    2.0%      -13.4%  10.8%    -10.4%  37.1%

Asia Pacific          34.2%    9.3%      7.6%      0.8%      48.6%

Europe 21.5%    4.4%      2.8%      0.9%      59.6%

Latin America     2.9%      5.6%      5.2%      0.1%      39.5%

Middle East        13.6%    -3.3%     0.9%      -2.0%     47.6%

North America  25.8%    3.7%      2.6%      0.5%      40.7%

1% of industry CTKs in 2024

March Regional Performance

Asia-Pacific airlines saw 9.6% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased by 11.3% year-on-year.

North American carriers saw a 9.5% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 6.1% year-on-year.

European carriers saw a 4.5% year-on-year increase in demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased 2.0% year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw a -3.2% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased by 0.8% year-on-year. It’s possible the weakness in this market is due to year-on-year comparison with the strong growth at the start of 2024 resulting from disruption to Red Sea maritime freight.

Latin American carriers saw 5.8% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in March. Capacity increased 4.7% year-on-year.

African airlines saw a -13.4% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in March, the slowest among the regions. Capacity increased by 10.5% year-on-year.

 

Trade Lane Growth: The Europe-North America route was the busiest trade lane in March. The largest trade lane by market share, Asia-North America, also grew strongly, possibly encouraged by front-loading shipments ahead of potential increased tariffs. Europe-Middle East and Africa-Asia were the only trade lanes to decline in March.

 

Trade Lane          YOY Growth       Notes    Market Share of Industry*

Asia-North America        +7.3%    This route has resumed growth after a revised fall of 0.5% in February   24.4%

Europe-Asia       +8.3%    25 consecutive months of growth            20.5%

Middle East-Europe        -7.5%     N/A        5.7%

Middle East-Asia              +2.9%    N/A        7.3%

Within Asia         +5.5%    17 consecutive months of growth            7.0%

Europe-North America  +8.5%    14 consecutive months of growth            13.3%

Africa-Asia          -40.2%  4 consecutive months of decline               1.4%

Within Europe   -5.2%     N/A        2.0%

*Share is based on full-year 2024 CTKs.

>Read the latest Air Cargo Market Analysis

 

China reportedly puts a stop on delivery of Boeing aircraft

China reportedly puts a stop on delivery of Boeing aircraft

By Damian BrettDamian Brett22 April 2025

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Boeing 777

China-based airlines have reportedly been told to stop accepting deliveries of Boeing aircraft as part of the ongoing tariff dispute between Beijing and Washington.

Newswire Bloomberg reported last week that China had ordered its airlines to stop receiving Boeing aircraft, while The Wall Street Journal reported on 14 April that China told its carriers to stop ordering new Boeing jets and to receive approval before accepting already ordered aircraft.

However, Air Cargo News’ sister publication FlightGlobal reports that analysts believe too much is at stake for any pause to continue for long, noting the importance of Chinese customers to Boeing and that Chinese airlines badly need Boeing jets and other US-made aerospace goods.

“We believe much of the headline risk with the pause in deliveries is a negotiating tactic, and we would be surprised if the delay were extended, considering the importance of US parts for the Chinese fleet,” RBC Capital Markets financial analyst Ken Herbert said in a 15 April research report.

Chinese airlines require US-made components for their existing Boeing fleets, Herbert added.

Boeing declined to comment about the reported delivery disruption.

“We do see this as unsustainable,” said Bank of America (BofA) Global Research analyst Ron Epstein in a 15 April note. “When considering balances of trade, we think the Trump Administration can’t ignore Boeing. In fact, Boeing [aircraft are] one of the few high-tech manufactured goods that the US exports in large numbers.”

The reported China-delivery pause comes after US president Donald Trump last week slapped more tariffs on Chinese imports, prompting Beijing to respond in kind. The US is now taxing some Chinese imports at 145%, while China is taxing US products at 125%.

Some analysts think China and Chinese airlines, by refusing to take Boeing jets, will suffer more than the US manufacturer.

“By stopping Boeing deliveries, China does not hurt the US,” said Addison Schonland, co-founder of consultancy AirInsight. “India will take them all, even at a slight discount.”

Damian Brett

Damian has been writing about the freight and logistics industry since 2007 when he joined International Freighting Weekly to cover the shipping sector. After a stint in PR, he went on to work for Containerisation International and Lloyd’s List – where he was editor of container shipping – before joining Air Cargo News in 2015.

IATA: Air Cargo Key to Supply Chain Resilience

15 April 2025

Dubai – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) emphasized the vital role of air cargo in maintaining global supply chain resilience and called on governments and industry to remain focused on delivering the fundamental expectations of customers—safety and security, digitalization and sustainability.

“Whether supporting global trade, enabling e-commerce, or delivering vital humanitarian aid, the value of air cargo has never been clearer. To meet customer expectations and navigate an increasingly complex environment, the air cargo industry must continuously strengthen safety and security, fast-track digitalization, and deliver on its sustainability commitments,” said Brendan Sullivan, IATA’s Global Head of Cargo at the opening of the 18th World Cargo Symposium (WCS) in Dubai, UAE.

Safety: Zero Tolerance for Rogue Shippers

Safety is the top priority for air transport and in the case of air cargo the specific focus is on the safe transport of lithium batteries. IATA calls on government to step up efforts to stop rogue shippers and support ICAO’s work to strengthen Annex 18 of the Chicago Convention—the global framework for the safe transport of dangerous goods by air.

“Shipments of lithium batteries are growing in volume. With that come increased risks associated with undeclared or mis-declared goods. The industry has invested in training, certification, and technology. Governments must match that commitment with robust oversight and enforcement,” said Sullivan.

Security: The Need for Coordinated, Risk-Based Measures

IATA reinforced calls to governments for a coordinated, risk-based approach to air cargo security following recent incidents involving incendiary devices concealed in shipments. While some states implemented new measures, the lack of alignment led to inconsistent outcomes. This situation reinforces the importance of harmonized responses based on global standards.

“Recent security incidents highlight the need for better coordination among governments. Aviation security cannot be built on fragmented or reactionary measures. Global standards and cooperation are essential,” said Sullivan.

IATA also renewed its call to states to fulfill their Annex 17 obligations by sharing timely and accurate threat intelligence to enable informed risk assessments and operational decisions.

“The industry is best placed to understand its operations and the associated safety and security risks. But governments have infinitely more resources, particularly in intelligence gathering. The best results come when governments and industry work together,” said Sullivan.

Digitalization: Accelerating Industry-Wide Adoption of ONE Record

IATA reinforced the central role of ONE Record as the industry’s standard for end-to-end digital data exchange, supporting improved efficiency, compliance, and transparency. The industry’s goal is clear: by January 2026, ONE Record will become the preferred method of sharing data. To accelerate industry adoption IATA urged:

  • Airlines and forwarders to move forward with implementation
  • Governments to recognize ONE Record in regulatory data filing requirements
  • Developers to build secure, open, and compatible digital platforms

“ONE Record is a foundational shift in how we share, manage, and trust data across the supply chain. Airlines representing 72% of global air waybill volume are on track to implement it. More than 100 IT providers and 10,000 freight forwarders are already aligned. To achieve full value, implementation must accelerate across all stakeholders, and governments must recognize ONE Record in their regulatory frameworks,” said Sullivan.

Sustainability: Commitment Strong, SAF Support Needed
The air cargo industry continues to embed sustainability into its operations, with growing efforts to reduce waste, implement circular practices, and phase out single-use plastics. For example, IATA guidance to eliminate single-use plastics across the cargo supply chain is now reflected in operational standards.

Progress is also being made on the sector’s largest environmental challenge—reducing carbon emissions. Momentum around Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is growing, with new agreements across the value chain and more companies committing to SAF use. The SAF Registry, recently launched and operated by CADO, is designed to enable a global market for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and accelerate the industry’s transition to net-zero emissions by 2050. In addition, IATA will soon launch CO2 Connect for Cargo to support accurate emissions calculation and reporting, including SAF usage.

However, SAF volumes remain far below what is needed, and production costs remain high. IATA urged governments to implement policy frameworks to scale up SAF production and reduce costs.

“We are committed to net zero carbon emissions by 2050. But the ramp-up of SAF—our strongest lever—has been disappointing. The major fuel producers have been slow-walking—or sidelining—planned investments in SAF. Aircraft manufacturers have backed off their commitments for medium-term delivery of CO2 saving products such as hydrogen-powered aircraft. And governments have not provided the policy support needed, even though they have a playbook at hand with how the wind and solar energy industries expanded. Instead, they send mixed signals by subsidizing fossil fuel extraction while aiming for net zero. Airlines are committed and determined but we cannot do it alone. We need action behind the words of regulators, fuel suppliers and manufacturers,” said Sullivan.

Trade Tensions

Amid growing trade tensions, IATA reinforced its position that trade drives prosperity, and that any measures undermining the free flow of goods ultimately hurt businesses, consumers, and economies.

“Current trade tensions are deeply concerning. Trade drives prosperity. The more the world trades, the better off we all are. So, whatever the resolution of current trade tensions is, we know that air cargo will be there to deliver the goods people need and want,” said Sullivan.

 

 

China-US tonnages down but rates up ahead of tariffs

By Damian BrettDamian Brett11 April 2025

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The latest statistics from data provider WorldACD show that airfreight demand out of China and Hong Kong to the US declined slightly last week while rates increased.

Figures from WorldACD show that in the week running to 6 April (week 14) demand from China and Hong Kong fell by 1% week on week for the first time since the start of the year, although volumes remain 3% higher than the same week a year ago.

Demand out of Asia Pacific as a whole was down by around 7% week on week.

Meanwhile, pricing ex-Asia Pacific jumped 4% week on week with the average spot rate out of the region going up 5%, to $3.94 per kg.

Overall air cargo demand across the globe also weakened in week 14, with WorldACD stats showing a 7% week-on-week decline.

The data firm said half of this decline reflected the Eid holidays at the end of Ramadan, while the other half reflects “worldwide uncertainty over a trade war triggered by the latest wave of US tariffs and the removal of US de minimis exemptions for shipments from China and Hong Kong”.

Compared with last year, demand is up 6%.

World ACD April 11 2025

WorldACD

On the pricing front, average rates out of every region were also on the rise, apart from Central and South America, climbing 2% on last week to $2.52 per kg. Against a year ago, prices are up 2.9%.

However, WorldACD said the situation could change in the coming weeks due to the trade war between China and the US that will see Washington implement tariffs of 145% on imports from China and Beijing respond with its own 125% rate.

The US also put on hold tariffs to several other countries for 90 days.

“As the new US tariffs that have not been put on hold for 90 days came into effect on Wednesday, 9 April, the impact is expected to be more clearly visible on certain trade flows in next week’s report,” WorldACD said.

Air cargo demand declines slightly in February

April 2, 2025 by PLA Editor

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for February 2025 global air cargo markets showing:

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), declined by 0.1% compared to February 2024 levels (+0.4% for international operations). This marks the first decline since mid-2023.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), decreased by 0.4% compared to February 2024 (+1.1% for international operations).

* Year-on-year comparisons are affected by the extra day in February 2024 due to the leap year.

“February saw a small contraction in air cargo demand, the first year-on-year decline since mid-2023. Much of this is explained by February 2024 being extraordinary—a leap year that was also boosted by Chinese New Year traffic, sea lane closures and a boom in e-commerce. Rising trade tensions are, of course, a concern for air cargo. With equity markets already showing their discomfort, we urge governments to focus on dialogue over tariffs,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:

In January, the industrial production index rose 3.2% year-on-year, the highest growth in two years and world trade expanded by 5%.

Jet fuel prices averaged $ 94.6/barrel in February, a 2.1% drop from January.

In February, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark (51.5), indicating growth. The PMI for new export orders rose slightly to 49.60 from the previous month, remaining just shy of the 50-mark, which is the growth threshold.

In February, consumer inflation remained elevated in the US, Europe, and Japan, easing only slightly from the previous month. In contrast, China recorded its first decline in consumer prices in 11 months, reinforcing signs of persistent deflationary pressure in the economy.

February regional performance

Asia-Pacific airlines saw 5.1% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity increased by 2.7% year-on-year.

North American carriers saw a 0.4% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity decreased by 3.5% year-on-year.

 

European carriers saw a 0.1% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February. Capacity decreased 0.2% year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw an 11.9% year-on-year decrease in demand growth for air cargo in February, the slowest among the regions. Capacity decreased by 4.0% year-on-year.

Latin American carriers saw 6.0% year-on-year demand growth for air cargo in February, the strongest growth among the regions. Capacity increased 7.6% year-on-year.

African airlines saw a 5.7% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in February. Capacity decreased by 0.6% year-on-year.

Trade Lane Growth: The Trans-Pacific corridor remained the busiest trade lane in February. Intra-Asia led growth, becoming the fifth busiest. Europe–Asia and Transatlantic routes also expanded, while Middle East–Asia and European routes declined.

Other Topics: Air Cargo Network, Air Express, Air Freight Services, Air Logistics, Asia Pacific Air Cargo, Asia Pacific Air Freight, Asia Pacific Air Logistics, Asia Pacific Shipments, Cargo Flights, E-Commerce Logistics, Express Delivery, Express Logistics, IATA, International Air Shipments, International Air Transport Association, International Express Delivery, Transpacific Air Cargo, Transpacific Air Freight

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Trump tariffs: Lower airfreight demand and China de minimis end date set

By Damian BrettDamian Brett3 April 2025

Donald Trump

Last night saw US president Donald Trump reveal a slew of new tariffs and also confirm the date from which Chinese goods will no longer benefit from the de minimis exemption.

In what the president has dubbed ‘liberation day’, Trump announced a universal 10% tariff on imports into the country, while certain nations are subject to higher levels.

A chart highlighting the tariff changes on a country-by-country basis showed that imports from China would be subject to tariffs of 34%, the European Union 20%, Vietnam 46% and Taiwan 32%. These are due to come into force on 9 April while the universal tariffs are due on 5 April, giving countries little time to negotiate with the US.

According to forwarder Flexport, China’s tariffs are on top of section 301 tariffs, the 20% tariff implemented in early March, and baseline US tariffs.

Last week, the Trump administration also announced a 25% tariff on autmobiles that starts today, along with a 25% tariff on automobile parts due to come into force in May.

He has also previously implemented a 25% tariff on all Canadian and Mexican imports that are not covered by the North American free-trade agreement.

Reciprocal_Tariffs

Market analyst Xeneta said it is not expecting the tariffs to result in an immediate jump in airfreight rates but could result in demand decreases as a result of lower consumer demand due to higher prices.

Niall van de Wouw, Xeneta chief airfreight officer, said: “We saw an uptick in air cargo rates from China and Europe to the US at the end of March but nothing to set alarm bells ringing. The more likely scenario is a decrease in air cargo rates if tariffs result in higher prices and lower consumer demand.

“We could also see lower demand for US exports if there is growing anti-US sentiment across consumers in regions hit by the tariffs. Consumer sentiment has the potential to be even more powerful than tariffs.

“We should also consider there will be more capacity added to these trades in the coming weeks as airlines start summer schedules, which will also put downward pressure on rates.”

 

According to Xeneta figures, air cargo spot rates currently stand at $4.16 per kg from Shanghai to US, down from the peak season high of $5.75 per kg in the week ending 10 November.

Spot rates from western Europe to the US stand at $2.16 per kg, down from the peak season high of $3.51 per kg in the week ending 15 December.

US retailers are expecting the tariffs to hit US consumers’ spending power and warn the sudden implementation will create issues.

“Tariffs are a tax paid by the US importer that will be passed along to the end consumer,” said National Retail Federation executive vice president of government relations David French. “Tariffs will not be paid by foreign countries or suppliers.

“Even more so, the immediate implementation of these tariffs is a massive undertaking and requires both advance notice and substantial preparation by the millions of US businesses that will be directly impacted.”

De minimis update

Amongst the various executive orders issued by the White House yesterday was an update on the end of the de minimis exemption for imports from China.

The US had tried to end the exemption that allows packages worth less than $800 to enter the country tariff-free and with minimal customs scrutiny in February.

But the country was forced to backtrack on its plans when it became clear customs did not have the systems in place to process the millions of packages that arrive from China every day.

However, the White House yesterday issued an update, saying that it planned to remove the exemption for China packages from 2 May. Packages that are sent through international postal networks will be subject to a different set of duties than those that are sent by other modes of transport.

“Imported goods sent through means other than the international postal network that are valued at or under $800 and that would otherwise qualify for the de minimis exemption will be subject to all applicable duties, which shall be paid in accordance with applicable entry and payment procedures,” the White House said.

“All relevant postal items containing goods that are sent through the international postal network that are valued at or under $800 and that would otherwise qualify for the de minimis exemption are subject to a duty rate of either 30% of their value or $25 per item (increasing to $50 per item after June 1, 2025).

“This is in lieu of any other duties, including those imposed by prior orders.”

 

The different rules depending on how items are sent is likely to differentiate between small-scale shippers and e-commerce giants such as Shein and Temu which have such large volumes that they are able to charter aircraft and create direct commercial agreements with airlines to move their goods.

The impact of the removal of the de minimis exemption on e-commerce volumes, which has helped fuel a boom in air cargo in recent years, is debated.

Some are expecting it to have a large impact on the market, while others argue that the goods are so cheap anyway that adding a few extra dollars on top won’t make too much of a difference.

Others, however, say the need for customs to process packages will slow delivery times and make the overall proposition less attractive to consumers.

There are also expected to be changes to e-commerce supply chains, with Chinese firms utilising a more traditional distribution setup, with warehouses in the US to store goods and an increased use of ocean shipping.

They could also export from countries that are still able to benefit from the de minimis exemption or go through Mexico and Canada.

Shipping upside

While the latest developments are likely to be a blow to air cargo demand expectations, there is one geopolitical development that is expected to result in increased volumes if it is implemented.

The Office of US Trade Representatives (USTR) has proposed a fee ranging from $500,000 to $1.5m per US port call by any Chinese carrier, Chinese vessel, or other carrier that has Chinese vessels as part of their global fleet.

Ocean container carriers are expected to try and avoid the fees by calling at fewer ports, which could cause major congestion and delays to the US.

Xeneta’s van de Wouw said: “The proposed fees on Chinese vessels and carriers entering US ports could have a more significant impact if congestion in ocean container supply chains causes shippers to move more goods by air.

“With around 98% of the world’s goods transported by ocean, it doesn’t take much of a percentage shift to have major implications for air freight, as we saw during Covid-19 and the Red Sea crisis.”

 

 

Emirates Courier Express launches

Emirates Courier Express launches

By Rebecca Jeffrey Rebecca Jeffrey 2 April 2025

Emirates has launched end-to-end delivery solution Emirates Courier Express with what it said is an average delivery time of less than 48 hours.

The airline has worked with various global customers to pilot the service, focusing on speed, reliability and flexibility.

As part of the pilot, Emirates Courier Express transported several thousands packages from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, South Africa and the UK over the last year.

Badr Abbas, divisional senior vice president, Emirates SkyCargo, said: “Emirates Courier Express is an evolution in how we move goods across the globe, at speed and at scale.

“Building on our world-class and well-established infrastructure, and reimagining traditional logistics processes where necessary, this innovative solution does not just meet the Emirates Gold Standard of reliability and excellence but sets a new benchmark for what’s possible.

“This is only the beginning of our vision to continuously innovate and lead the charge in the express delivery sector.”

Traditionally, cross-border delivery is managed via a global hub-and-spoke model, with a package making multiple stops before arriving at its end destination.

But with Emirates Courier Express, packages will travel from origin to destination directly, utilising Emirates’ global network and flight frequencies.

This reduces time in transit and package handling, explained the airline.

Direct connectivity is matched with different service levels, ranging from next-day urgent delivery to a two-day premium service.

The launch will make Emirates Courier Express active and available in seven markets, but Emirates added that delivery could extend to anywhere in its air network.

Emirates Courier Express has access to over 250 widebody passenger and freighter aircraft to move packages worldwide.

The service is also bolstered by an integrated cross-border network of partners to manage the customs clearance and first and last mile transportation to fulfill the door-to-door service.

 

Emirates stressed that the service’s integration into the airline’s existing infrastructure allows Emirates Courier Express to handle volume fluctuations from seasonal spikes while maintaining cost stability.

The integration also enables Emirates Courier Express to provide bespoke and tailored solutions, regardless of the type of product being carried.

A team of dedicated specialists provide niche segment solutions, facilitated by the airline’s freight and logistics infrastructure, including cool chain capacity, allowing the transportation of specialist or sensitive products from launch.

Emirates Courier Express is entirely digital. It operates using a purpose-built technology platform that features advanced tracking systems and offers real-time updates, while integrating directly into customer software.

Expansion of the service is also already being planned.

Dennis Lister, senior vice president of product and innovation, Emirates SkyCargo, said: “Emirates Courier Express is the result of challenging the status quo. Along with the industry, we watched the increasing volumes of cross-border shipping and challenged ourselves to find a better way to transport these goods faster and more efficiently.

“The new product launch reflects our ongoing commitment to push the boundaries to introduce innovations which drive real impact and ensure our customers always have access to the fastest, most reliable and cost-effective solutions available.”