Figures from WorldACD Market Data for 17 August to 23 August suggest that China-Europe air cargo traffic is beginning to stabilise after several weeks of decline, following the 1 July introduction of European Union import duty rules for low-value imports, including e-commerce.
During week 34, chargeable weight from mainland China and Hong Kong to Europe crept up by 1% week on week – the first such increase since early June, WorldACD noted.
The data provider said: “Although it’s relatively early days since the 1 July ending of EU ‘de minimis’ exemptions on low-value imports, the WoW [week-on-week] uptick in tonnages from China and Hong Kong to Europe could signal a bottoming out of that downward trend and a potential stabilisation of volumes at a new lower level, supported by rebounding post-summer demand.”
However, compared to week 34 of 2025 volumes are substantially down: by 8% on mainland China–Europe routes and by 33% for Hong Kong–Europe tonnages.
More generally for Asia Pacific–Europe traffic, volumes rose by 3% week on week. A massive 88% increase on traffic ex Japan was the main factor in this development (volumes in the preceding week were hit by the country’s Obon festival as well as flight cancellations out of Tokyo owing to tropical storm Chan-Hom).
Elsewhere, Asia Pacific–US volumes were “flat” week on week, WorldACD said, a 33% rise in tonnages ex Japan offset by declines in other origin markets (China down 3% and Hong Kong down 2%, for instance).
Year-on-year comparisons for traffic to the US are tricky given the many changes to US import tariffs and exemptions. Still, tonnages ex China were up 11%, and from Hong Kong up 9 percent, compared to the same week of 2025.
As for total Asia Pacific origin volumes, WorldACD said: “Total Asia Pacific origin volumes in week 34 were up, WoW, by +7 percent, after falling by around -5 percent the previous week, taking them back slightly above their levels of week 33, and +4 percent higher than the equivalent week last year. More than half of that +7 percent WoW increase is explained by the recovery ex-Japan.”
Volumes from the Middle East and South Asia origins rose by 4% week on week and 7% year on year, despite the continuing disruptions to capacity and traffic in parts of that region due to the US–Iran confrontation.
Week-on-week increases from India to Europe (up 5 percent) and Dubai/Bangladesh (up 6 percent) to Europe contrasted with a drop from Dubai to the US (down 15%).
Out of Europe and the US, volumes were down week on week by 4 percent and 2 percent respectively though – “limiting global WoW growth to +2 percent in week 34, and the YoY [year-on-year] worldwide increase to +5 percent” according to WorldACD.
Similar to week 32, average global air cargo spot rates rose by 1% week on week. For China–Europe shipments spot rates have picked up for three weeks in a row as carriers have adjusted capacity to match new levels of demand in the wake of the EU de minimis change.
“Among the key origin markets, spot rates from key high-tech export hubs such as South Korea (+25%, YoY), Taiwan (+25%), and many parts of southeast Asia, were well above the regional average, including Vietnam (+22%, YoY), Thailand (+32%), Malaysia (+42%),” WorldACD observed.
Rates ex Asia Pacific to the US have held steady of late, as has global airfreight capacity –which edged up by 1% week on week in week 34.
The ongoing Israel conflict has impacted capacity out of the Middle East, South Asia and the Gulf, while Europe and North America have seen increases in capacity since that war began.