IATA: Air cargo volumes predicted to rise 5.8% in 2025
Seasonal demand, front loading of shipments to avoid tariffs and lower fuel prices helped air cargo demand rise again in April, but airlines need to remain ready for trade changes, IATA has warned.
The trade association said that total demand, measured in cargo tonne km (CTK), rose by 5.8% year on year. Month-on-month, demand also rose by 2.3%. Demand rose 4.4% year on year in March due to front loading of cargo.
“Fashion and consumer goods are typically shipped between April and June, ahead of the summer retail cycle, supporting these numbers. Moreover, front-loading aimed at avoiding the upcoming US tariff change on 2 May, 2025, regarding lifting of the de minimis allowance, contributed as well,” said IATA in its Air Cargo Market Analysis for April.
Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne km (ACTK), increased by 6.3%.
The cargo load factor (CLF)—measured as CTK divided by ACTK—stood at 43.9%, a 0.2 percentage point decline compared to April 2024.
“This slight decrease indicates that capacity growth outpaced demand, aligning with broader market trends in air freight utilisation,” said IATA.
Speaking about the industry’s performance in April, IATA director general Willie Walsh, said: “Air cargo demand grew strongly in April, with volumes up 5.8% year-on-year, building on March’s solid performance.
“Seasonal demand for fashion and consumer goods — front-loading ahead of US tariff changes — and lower jet fuel prices have combined to boost air cargo. With available capacity at record levels and yields improving, the outlook for air cargo is encouraging.
“While April brought good news, stresses in world trade are no secret. Shifts in trade policy, particularly in the US, are already reshaping demand and export dynamics. Airlines will need to remain flexible as the situation develops over the coming months.”
Alongside current trade tensions, IATA said air cargo growth outpaced global goods trade, which increased by 6.5% over the previous month.
The global manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5 in April, signalling expansion for the fourth consecutive month. However, the PMI for new export orders fell 2.8 points to 47.2, remaining below the 50 threshold for growth.
Additionally, jet fuel prices dropped 21.2% year on year and 4.1% month on month, the third consecutive monthly decrease.
Regionally, Asia Pacific and Latin American carriers led year-on-year demand growth in April, but Middle Eastern carriers trailed behind.
Latin American carriers saw a 10.1% increase in cargo traffic, while Asia Pacific airlines saw a 10% increase.
African airlines saw a 4.7% rise and North American carriers saw 4.2% growth. Meanwhile, European carriers experienced growth of 2.9% and Middle Eastern carriers saw 2.3%.
In terms of trade lane growth, all international routes experienced growth in April, except for Middle East-Europe, Africa-Asia, and intra-European, noted IATA.