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Air Passenger Numbers to Recover in 2024

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects overall traveler numbers to reach 4.0 billion in 2024 (counting multi-sector connecting trips as one passenger), exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels (103% of the 2019 total).

Expectations for the shape of the near-term recovery have shifted slightly, reflecting the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets. The overall picture presented in the latest update to IATA’s long-term forecast, however, is unchanged from what was expected in November, prior to the Omicron variant.

“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

The February update to the long-term forecast includes the following highlights:

•             In 2021, overall traveler numbers were 47% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.

•             In 2021, international traveler numbers were 27% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69% in 2022, 82% in 2023, 92% in 2024 and 101% in 2025.

This is a slightly more optimistic near-term international recovery scenario compared to November 2021, based on the progressive relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets. This has seen improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, strengthening the baseline for recovery. Asia-Pacific is expected to continue to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future.

•             In 2021, domestic traveler numbers were 61% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 93% in 2022, 103% in 2023, 111% in 2024 and 118% in 2025.

The outlook for the evolution of domestic traveler numbers is slightly more pessimistic than in November. While the US and Russian domestic markets have recovered, the same is not true for the other major domestic markets of China, Canada, Japan and Australia.

“The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel. Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus. And the economic and social hardship caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving a much-needed boost to the prospects for travel,” said Walsh.

IATA reiterates its call for:

•             The removal of all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine

•             Pre-departure antigen testing to enable quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travelers

•             Removing all travel bans, and

•             Accelerating the easing of travel restrictions in recognition that travelers pose no greater risk for COVID-19 spread than already exists in the general population.

Regional Variations

Not all markets or market sectors are recovering at the same pace.

“In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there are some concerns. Asia-Pacific is the laggard of the recovery. While Australia and New Zealand have announced measures to reconnect with the world, China is showing no signs of relaxing its zero-COVID strategy. The resulting localized lock-downs in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even as other major markets like the US are largely back to normal,” said Walsh.

Asia-Pacific: The slow removal of international travel restrictions, and the likelihood of renewed domestic restrictions during COVID outbreaks, mean that traffic to/from/within Asia Pacific will only reach 68% of 2019 levels in 2022, the weakest outcome of the main regions. 2019 levels should be recovered in 2025 (109%) due to a slow recovery on international traffic in the region.

Europe: In the next few years, the intra-Europe market is expected to benefit from passenger preferences for short-haul travel as confidence rebuilds. This will be facilitated by increasingly harmonized and restriction-free movement within the EU. Total passenger numbers to/from/within Europe are expected to reach 86% of 2019 values in 2022, before making a full recovery in 2024 (105%).

North America: After a resilient 2021, traffic to/from/within North America will continue to perform strongly in 2022 as the US domestic market returns to pre-crisis trends, and with ongoing improvements in international travel. In 2022, passenger numbers will reach 94% of 2019 levels, and full recovery is expected in 2023 (102%), ahead of other regions.

Africa: Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are somewhat weaker in the near-term, due to slow progress in vaccinating the population, and the impact of the crisis on developing economies. Passenger numbers to/from/within Africa will recover more gradually than in other regions, reaching 76% of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025 (101%).

Middle East: With limited short-haul markets, the Middle East focus on long-haul connectivity through its hubs is expected to result in slower recovery. Passenger numbers to/from/within the Middle East are expected to reach 81% of 2019 levels in 2022, 98% in 2024 and 105% in 2025.

Latin America: Traffic to/from/within Latin America has been relatively resilient during the pandemic and is forecast to see a strong 2022, with limited travel restrictions and dynamic passenger flows within the region and to/from North America. 2019 passenger numbers are forecast to be surpassed in 2023 for Central America (102%), followed by South America in 2024 (103%) and the Caribbean in 2025 (101%).

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The forecast does not calculate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In general, air transport is resilient against shocks and this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of air transport. It is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation, but it is clear that there are downside risks, in particular in markets with exposure to the conflict.

Sensitivity factors will include the geographic extent, severity, and time-period for sanctions and/or airspace closures. These impacts would be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine and neighboring areas.  Pre-COVID-19, Russia, was the 11th largest market for air transport services in terms of passenger numbers, including its large domestic market. Ukraine ranked 48.

The impact on airline costs as a result of fluctuations in energy prices or rerouting to avoid Russian airspace could have broader implications. Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to be impacted even outside of Eastern Europe. 

By Rebecca Jeffrey

The unique Antonov An-225 “Mriya” freighter, the world’s largest aircraft, has reportedly been destroyed in fighting following the invasion of Ukraine.

In a Twitter post on February 27, the Ukraine Government said: “The biggest plane in the world “Myria” (The Dream) was destroyed by Russian occupants on an airfield near Kiev.”

On February 24, the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) of Ukraine confirmed that Russian military forces had attacked Antonov (Hostomel) Airport.

Ukraine’s state-owned aerospace and defence company Ukroboronprom said in a press release on February 27 that the 250-tonne payload aircraft was destroyed at Antonov’s airfield premises in Gostomel near Kyiv, where it was undergoing repair and routine maintenance.

It added that restoration of the aircraft “will cost over $3bn” and take “over five years”.

However, in a second press release on February 27, Ukroboronprom casted doubt over the state of the aircraft. Referencing the An-225’s maintenance work on February 24, it said: “According to the director of Antonov Airlines, one of the engines was dismantled for repairs and the plane wasn’t able to take off that day, although the appropriate commands were given.

“Currently it is impossible to assess the plane’s condition and the possibility and cost of its restoring due the lack of access to the aircraft as the control over the airport is taken by the Russian occupiers.”

Antonov has not responded to Air Cargo News’ request for comment, but in a Twitter post on February 27 it did not confirm the destruction of the aircraft. “Currently, until the AN-225 has been inspected by experts, we cannot report on the technical condition of the aircraft.”

In an October 2021 press release, Antonov said that throughout the pandemic, the AN-225 has been commissioned to transport medical supplies in volumes unmatched by other aircraft per flight and has carried more than 1,300 tonnes of medical and humanitarian cargo in 2020 alone.

Antonov Airlines specialises in the transportation of outsized and project cargo worldwide using its fleet of seven AN-124-100 “Ruslan” aircraft, two of which have a payload up to 150 tonnes, its 60-tonne payload AN-22, and its unique 250-tonne payload AN-225 “Mriya”, which is the largest aircraft in the world, as well as smaller AN-74 and AN-26 aircraft.

Antonov Airlines is a division of Antonov Company, headquartered in Kyiv, Ukraine, and a Ukrainian state-owned enterprise, which designs, develops, produces, and maintains the AN aircraft.

By Damian Brett

Ukrainian airspace has been closed as navigation services declare the region an active conflict zone.

Early this morning, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued a conflict zone information bulletin covering Kiev, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk, Simferopol and Odessa flight information regions for all altitudes.

Additionally, as a precautionary measure, the EASA said that operators should exercise extreme caution and avoid using the airspace within 100 nautical miles of the Belarussian and Russia-Ukraine border.

Ukraine’s navigation service, UkSATSE, also suspended the provision of navigation services this morning.

FlightGlobal reports that Russian federal air transport regulator Rosaviatsia says that flights to a number of southern Russian airports are “temporarily limited” owing to “aggravation of the situation in Ukraine”.

These affected airports include Rostov Platov, Voronezch, Krasnodar, Anapa, Stavropol, Gelendzhik, Belgorod, Elista, Bryansk, Kursk, and Simferopol.

The moves comes as Russian military convoys entered Ukraine this morning and missile strikes and explosions were reported at several sites in the country.

Explosions have been reported at several of Ukraine’s airports.

Meanwhile, Flexport’s supply chain economist Chris Rogers has been examining the potential impact of the Ukraine crisis on trade.

Rogers said that there are four major risks to supply chains: Physical availability of commodities produced in Ukraine and Russia (specifically natural gas and oil); global commodity prices (already high) could surge further – adding to inflation pressures; physical disruption of logistics networks as flights are diverted around the conflict zone and transportation insurance costs are likely to rise; and widening sanctions could complicate customs and billing activities – with in an extreme case Russia excluded from the Swift payments system – leaving many reliant on supplies from Russia without access to key materials.

Rogers added that there is also the potential risk of cyber-security incursions which may include logistics firms as collateral damage.

On the flight diversions, Flexport chief executive Ryan Petersen has already reported (February 22) that one charter flights was forced to divert mid-route. Others are now operating on a different route avoiding Ukrainian airspace.

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data showing growing momentum in the recovery of air travel as restrictions are lifted.

Improved Ticket Sales

IATA reported a sharp 11-percentage point increase for international tickets sold in recent weeks (in proportion to 2019 sales).

•             In the period around 8 February (7 day moving average) the number of tickets sold stood at 49% of the same period in 2019.

•             In the period around 25 January (7 day moving average) the number of tickets sold stood at 38% of the same period in 2019.

•             The 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began.

Progressive Alleviation of COVID-19 Measures

The jump in ticket sales comes as more governments announce a relaxation of COVID-19 border restrictions. An IATA survey of travel restrictions for the world’s top 50 air travel markets (comprising 92% of global demand in 2019 as measured by revenue passenger kilometers) revealed the growing access available to vaccinated travelers.

•             18 markets (comprising about 20% of 2019 demand) are open to vaccinated travelers without quarantine or pre-departure testing requirements.

•             28 markets are open to vaccinated travelers without quarantine requirements (including the 18 markets noted above). This comprises about 50% of 2019 demand.

•             37 markets (comprising about 60% of 2019 demand) are open to vaccinated travelers under varying conditions (18 having no restrictions, others requiring testing or quarantine or both).

These numbers reflect a spate of relaxations announced around the world, including in Australia, France, the Philippines, the UK, Switzerland, and Sweden among them.

“Momentum toward normalizing traffic is growing. Vaccinated travelers have the potential to travel much more extensively with fewer hassles than even a few weeks ago. This is giving growing numbers of travelers the confidence to buy tickets. And that is good news! Now we need to further accelerate the removal of travel restrictions. While recent progress is impressive, the world remains far from 2019 levels of connectivity. Thirteen of the top 50 travel markets still do not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers. That includes major economies like China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

IATA continues to call for:

•             Removing all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine,

•             Enabling quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travelers with a negative pre-departure antigen test result,

•             Removing travel bans, and,

•             Accelerating the easing of travel restrictions in recognition that travelers pose no greater risk for COVID-19 spread than already exists in the general population.

“Travel restrictions have had a severe impact on people and on economies. They have not, however, stopped the spread of the virus. And it is time for their removal as we learn to live and travel in a world that will have risks of COVID-19 for the foreseeable future. This means putting a stop to the singling out of the traveling population for special measures. In nearly all cases, travelers don’t bring any more risk to a market than is already there. Many governments have recognized this already and removed restrictions. Many more need to follow,” said Walsh.

By Rebecca Jeffrey

Singapore Airlines (SIA) has finalised a purchase agreement with Airbus for seven A350F freighter aircraft.

The carrier signed a Letter of Intent (LOI) with Airbus in December to purchase seven of the recently launched A350F freighter aircraft, with options to order another five aircraft.

This order will replace SIA’s existing 747-400F fleet from the fourth quarter of 2025. Other recent orders of the A350F have been from CMA CGM and Air France-KLM.

The order was signed at the Singapore Airshow by SIA chief executive officer Goh Choong Phong, and Airbus chief commercial officer and head of international Christian Scherer.

Choong Phong said: “This order underscores the importance of the cargo market to the SIA Group. The introduction of the A350F will enhance our capabilities in this key sector, ensuring that we are ready for the growth opportunities that will arise in the coming years. These new-generation aircraft will substantially increase our operating efficiencies and reduce our fuel burn, making an important contribution towards the success of our long-term decarbonisation goals.”

“Singapore Airlines is the world’s largest operator of the A350 and is now set to become the first to fly the all-new freighter variant,” added Christian Scherer. “The A350F will fit seamlessly into the carrier’s existing fleet, while redefining the operational efficiency of its cargo operations, bringing a 40% reduction in fuel consumption and emissions compared with the aircraft it will replace at SIA, while offering the same payload-carrying capacity and longer range. Consumer patterns have changed dramatically in recent times, generating increased demand for the swift transport of cargo by air. With the A350F, SIA will be well-positioned to respond to this enormous market potential in a profitable and sustainable way.”

With a 109- tonne payload capability, the A350F will serve all cargo markets. The aircraft features a large main deck cargo door, with its fuselage length and capacity optimised around the industry’s standard pallets and containers.

The A350F will be powered by fuel-efficient Rolls-Royce Trent XWB-97 engines. More than 70% of the airframe will be made of advanced materials, resulting in a 30-tonne lighter take-off weight and generating at least 20% lower fuel consumption and emissions over its current closest competitor, said Airbus. The A350F will also fully meet ICAO’s enhanced CO₂ emissions standards coming into effect in 2027.

Singapore Airlines is the world’s largest operator of the A350, with 58 currently in service.

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA), in partnership with Airlines for America (A4A) and 28 US and international aviation and travel and tourism stakeholder groups, urged the US government to remove the pre-departure testing requirement for fully vaccinated air travelers flying to the US.

The vaccinated traveler population adds no additional risks to the domestic US population. Increased immunity levels, the pervasiveness of COVID-19 in all 50 US states, rising vaccination rates and new therapeutics, all point to removing the testing requirement for fully vaccinated travelers.

“The experience of Omicron has made it clear that travel restrictions have little to no impact in terms of preventing its spread. Moreover, as Omicron is already broadly present across the US, fully vaccinated travelers bring no extra risk to the local population. International travelers should face no additional screening requirements than what is applied to domestic travel. In fact, at this stage of the pandemic, travel should be managed in the same way as access to shopping malls, restaurants or offices,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

More than 74.3 million people — meaning at least 22% of the US population — have had COVID-19, and that is almost certainly an undercount owing to asymptomatic infections and limited testing early in the pandemic. When combined with an adult population that is 74% fully vaccinated, it is clear that the US is developing very high levels of population immunity.

The organizations also noted that the EU has recommended that its member states remove COVID-19 travel restrictions for travel within the EU, and the United Kingdom has announced the removal of COVID-19 pre-departure testing for vaccinated air travellers to enter the country. The UK concluded that the cost to both passengers and airlines of the testing mandate could no longer be justified as there was no evidence the regime protected the population from COVID-19.

Recent research by Oxera and Edge Health in Italy, Finland, and the UK all support the conclusion that travel measures do little to control the spread of COVID-19 when it is already broadly present in the local population. The studies found that, if implemented at a very early stage, travel restrictions may at best delay the peak of a new wave by a few days and marginally reduce the number of cases. 

Furthermore, IATA’s most recent air traveler survey showed that 62% of respondents support removing a testing requirement for those who are fully vaccinated.

“Removing the pre-departure testing requirement for fully vaccinated travelers will greatly support the recovery of travel and aviation in the US and globally without increasing the spread of COVID-19 and its variants in the US population. There is no use in closing the barn door after the horse has bolted,” said Walsh.

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association welcomed the creation by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) of a global directory of public keys required for authentication of health credentials. The directory—called the Health Master List (HML)—will make a significant contribution to the global recognition and verification (interoperability) of government issued health credentials.

A public key enables third parties to verify that a QR code displayed on a health credential is authentic and valid. The HLM is a compilation of public key certificates signed by ICAO and regularly updated as more health proofs are issued and new public keys are required. Its implementation will ease the global recognition of health credentials outside of the jurisdiction in which they were issued.

“For international travel today, it is critical that COVID-19 health passes can be efficiently verified outside of their country of issuance. While the keys for verification are available individually, the creation of a directory will significantly cut complexity, simplify operations and improve trust in the verification process. We encourage all states to submit their public health keys to the HLM,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

The sharing of public keys used to perform this verification does not involve any exchange of or access to personal information.

The HML is available on the ICAO website. All states can upload their public keys and download those of other governments.

Through a pilot project associated with the HML, private sector providers of solutions for governments to verify health credentials will also be able access these keys. This will help facilitate the broadest coverage of health certificates in their offerings as international travel continues to ramp-up. IATA will participate in this pilot program to support the deployment of the IATA Travel Pass.

A Step Forward for One ID

The air transport industry’s interest in this type of directory goes beyond the COVID-19 crisis.

“COVID-19 Health Certificates must be removed as we progress towards overall travel normalization and industry recovery. But we must retain and build on the operational experience of verifying certificates globally. That includes securely sharing access to public keys with private sector solution providers. This will help to drive progress for contactless verification of traveler identities for which similar keys are needed. We cannot under-estimate how important this will be for the implementation of One ID which has the potential to dramatically simplify travel,” said Walsh.

One ID uses digital identity management and biometric technologies to streamline travel by eliminating repetitive checks of paper documents. The contactless checking of travel health credentials is advancing the experience needed to operationalize One ID. The challenge is the same: universal recognition of verified digital credentials irrespective of the jurisdiction in which they were issued, or the standard used. The successful sharing of public keys to verify COVID-19 health certificates will demonstrate that similar keys for digital identity documents can also be securely and efficiently be collected and shared, including with private sector solution providers.

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Corporate Communications

By Rebecca Jeffrey

Copyright: Shutterstock

Strong air cargo rates are set to continue but capacity and ground handling challenges will continue.

This was the takeaway from the World Cargo Summit’s Air Cargo Market Update & Outlook, which focused on the market outlook for 2022 and beyond, hot spots for growth and the outlook for cargo charters.

Niall van de Wouw, managing director at CLIVE Data Services, said the company’s data comparing the fourth quarter of 2021 to the same period in 2019 showed that rates continued to increase on a global level, on average two and half times as high as pre-Covid.

It became tougher to move goods because of the challenges ground handling staff faced in loading/unloading/preighters. This led to congestion, which affected throughput.

“The difficulty in getting goods from A to B pushed up the rates to unprecedented levels.”

In the first two weeks of January 2022 compared to the same period in 2021 rates were up more than 40%.

“Looking ahead we currently see no fundamental changes in the dynamics that are causing these rates to be at these levels that we expect any easing soon.”

Abel Alemu, managing director, Ethiopian Cargo & Logistics Services, added that Covid-related labour shortages and quarantine restrictions “will keep capacity tighter for longer” and this may result in “persistently elevated airfreight rates”.

He added that reduced bellyhold capacity will also contribute to this “upwards pressure on airfreight rates”.

The industry stakeholders agreed that due to full order books for freighters, capacity remains in demand.

Reto Hunziker, group cargo director for charter broker Chapman Freeborn said the company has managed this by using in-house own control capacity including Bluebird Nordic 737s and Magma Aviation 747s, plus third-party carriers. He said that zero LOPA configuration aircraft also helped.

Konstantin Vekshin, chief executive officer of  Volga-Dnepr Group said the company resumed its Antonov 124-100 operations in 2021, but the fleet of 12’s estimated lifespan of 10-12 years is a concern. “It is a very unique piece of equipment and there is no replacement for it.”

Ethiopian Airlines Group is working with Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) to launch a B767-300ER freighter conversion line in Ethiopia. Alemu confirmed Ethiopian Cargo also currently has 20 preighters.

Ground handling support with regards to staff shortages and restrictions is a major concern.

Alemu pointed out some airports in Europe have said they will not handle preighters, while US ground handlers also have restrictions.

Hunziker said Chapman Freeborn has faced cancelled flights and delayed cargo clearance from airports of up to five days. “We have very big challenges with preighters especially out of China and Kong Kong both into Europe and the US.” As a result, there has been a shift to Vietnam and Korea, where the company operates preighters long term.

Vekshin added that Volga-Dnepr will await China’s legislation this year following the country’s ban on preighters. “If they’re sticking to their plans that maybe a game changer for the industry, at least for 2022…as it will affect all of us.”

Pharmaceuticals, PPE and e-commerce demand are set to continue to be strong drivers for the air cargo industry, according to Hunziker and Alemu.

Alemu said in the second half of 2021 major trade lanes were China-Europe, China-Latin America and South East Asia–US. The company saw major growth in South East Asia and recorded the largest expansion in Latin America.

Hunziker said growth was recorded worldwide in 2021 with China the driver for this.

Van de Wouw said US growth was up 30% in 2021 compared to 2020 when it was hit hard by Covid. APAC growth remained high in 2020 because of PPE trade, so 2021’s growth was not high.

He explained the Europe to US market is much stronger than from the US to Europe, adding Asia Pacific into the US “dwarfs” the market from the US to APAC.

While continued ocean freight congestion and reduced belly capacity is driving air cargo demand, the industry has no control over these factors, so uncertainty over the sustainability of growth remains, said van de Wouw.

He thinks as passenger demand returns “things will get worse” initially as there will be less room for cargo and pressure for capacity, until flight frequency increases but he doesn’t “see that happening anytime soon”.

27 / 01 / 2022

Image: Lufthansa Cargo Center (LCC) at Frankfurt Airport

Lufthansa Cargo’s handling operation at its Frankfurt hub has been “significantly” affected by Omicron infections amongst staff.

The carrier told Air Cargo News that transit shipment from the US, Canada and Europe, including Germany will be affected by a transit embargo as it looks to stabilise operations at Frankfurt.

“Loose freight via the Frankfurt hub from US & Canada and Europe (incl. Germany) that has not yet been delivered can unfortunately no longer be accepted by us and transported in a timely manner,” Lufthansa Cargo said.

Sister title, DVZ, reports that around 15% of volumes handled at its Frankfurt facility will be affected by the embargo.

However, direct deliveries as well as outbound deliveries in Frankfurt are still possible.

Certain product groups may also continue to fly, this includes urgent freight (same day shipments), valuable freight, animals, organ donations, mail and temperature-controlled shipments.

“Cargo that has already been accepted by us will be handled as soon as feasible,” Lufthansa Cargo added.

The carrier also stressed that all shipments routed through its hubs in Munich, Vienna and Brussels are not affected and these facilities are operating normally.

“Due to its high transmissibility, the Omicron variant of the Coronavirus continues to keep us on our toes and the infection figures have reached new record levels,” Lufthansa Cargo said.

“Notwithstanding the extensive preventive measures in place, we are now directly witnessing the increased infection incidence.

“This is leading to a pandemic-related abnormal reduction in staffing levels, which is significantly affecting our operations at this stage.”

It added: “We firmly believe that these measures will help to stabilise the situation and that we will gradually be able to return to normal operations as soon as possible.”

25 January 2022               

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) urged governments to accelerate relaxation of travel restrictions as COVID-19 continues to evolve from the pandemic to endemic stage. IATA called for:

•             Removing all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine.

•             Enabling quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travelers with a negative pre-departure antigen test result.

•             Removing travel bans, and

•             Accelerating the easing of travel restrictions in recognition that travelers pose no greater risk for COVID-19 spread than already exists in the general population.

“With the experience of the Omicron variant, there is mounting scientific evidence and opinion opposing the targeting of travelers with restrictions and country bans to control the spread of COVID-19. The measures have not worked. Today Omicron is present in all parts of the world. That’s why travel, with very few exceptions, does not increase the risk to general populations. The billions spent testing travelers would be far more effective if allocated to vaccine distribution or strengthening health care systems,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Evidence

A recently published study by Oxera and Edge Health(i) demonstrated the extremely limited impact of travel restrictions on controlling the spread of Omicron. The study found that:

•             If the UK’s extra measures(ii) with respect to Omicron had been in place from the beginning of November (prior to the identification of the variant), the peak of the Omicron wave would have been delayed by just five days with 3% fewer cases.

•             The absence of any testing measures for travelers would have seen the Omicron wave peak seven days earlier with an overall 8% increase in cases.

•             Now that Omicron is highly prevalent in the UK, if all travel testing requirements were removed there would be no impact on Omicron case numbers or hospitalizations in the UK.

“While the study is specific to the UK, it is clear that travel restrictions in any part of the world have had little impact on the spread of COVID-19, including the Omicron variant. The UK, France and Switzerland have recognized this and are among the first to begin removing travel measures. More governments need to follow their lead. Accelerating the removal of travel restrictions will be a major step towards living with the virus,” said Walsh.

With respect to travel bans, last week, the WHO Emergency Committee confirmed their recommendation to “Lift or ease international traffic bans as they do not provide added value and continue to contribute to the economic and social stress experienced by States. The failure of travel restrictions introduced after the detection and reporting of Omicron variant to limit international spread of Omicron demonstrates the ineffectiveness of such measures over time.”

What happens when COVID-19 is confirmed as endemic?

All indications point to COVID-19 becoming an endemic condition—one that humankind now has the tools (including vaccination and therapeutics) to live and travel with, bolstered by growing population immunity.

This aligns with the advice from public health experts to shift the policy focus from an individual’s health status towards policies focusing on population-wide protection. It is important that governments and the travel industry are well-prepared for the transition and ready to remove the burden of measures that disrupt travel.

 “The current situation of travel restrictions is a mess. There is one problem—COVID-19. But there seem to be more unique solutions to managing travel and COVID-19 than there are countries to travel to. Indeed research from the Migration Policy Institute has counted more than 100,000 travel measures around the world that create complexity for passengers, airlines and governments to manage. We have two years of experience to guide us on a simplified and coordinated path to normal travel when COVID-19 is endemic. That normality must recognize that travelers, with very few exceptions, will present no greater risk than exists in the general population. And that’s why travelers should not be subject to any greater restrictions than are applied to the general community,” said Walsh.

Vaccination Priorities

Mutually recognized policies on vaccination will be critical as we approach the endemic phase. Barrier-free travel is a potent incentive for vaccination. The sustainability of this incentive must not be compromised by vaccine policies that complicate travel or divert vaccine resources from where they can do the most good. Issues to address include:

 •            Accepted vaccines: There is no universal recognition for all vaccines on the WHO Emergency Use list. This raises a barrier to travel as people have little choice on the range of vaccines available in their country.

•             Validity: There is no alignment on the length of vaccine validity. This will become a barrier to travel as eligibility for boosters is controlled by national policies. Unduly short validity periods that effectively require air passengers to get regular booster jabs to travel internationally will consume resources that could support primary vaccination in the developing world and booster doses for the most vulnerable. It is reported that the WHO’s Chief Scientist called for booster doses to be used “to protect the most vulnerable, to protect those at highest risk of severe disease and dying. Those are […] elderly populations, immuno-compromised people with underlying conditions, but also healthcare workers.”

 •            Distribution priorities: The calls of WHO and health experts for vaccine equity are not universally prioritized. Only half the states in Africa have been able to vaccinate more than 10% of their populations while many developed countries are reducing vaccination validity and considering second rounds of boosters. This creates a barrier to travel and strains testing resources in parts of the world where vaccine distribution is less advanced.

“Urgent consideration is needed for several critical concerns regarding vaccines. While Europe is aligning around a nine-month validity period for primary vaccinations, this is not universal. And booster shot validity has not been addressed. As the first quarter of the year is key to bookings for the peak-northern summer travel season, it is important to provide certainty to potential travelers as early as possible. Governments have declared intentions to support a travel recovery. Addressing questions on vaccination validity is a key element,” said Walsh.

Industry and Governments Finding Solutions Together

In October, the Ministerial Declaration of the ICAO High-level Conference on COVID-19 called for “one vision for aviation recovery.” IATA followed-up by publishing From Restart to Recovery in November. It is a blueprint for reconnecting the world following key principles of simplicity, predictability and practicality.

“The over-reaction of many governments to Omicron proved the blueprint’s key point—the need for simple, predictable and practical means of living with the virus that don’t constantly default to de-connecting the world. We have seen that targeting disproportionate measures at travelers has economic and social costs but very limited public health benefits. We must aim at a future where international travel faces no greater restriction than visiting a shop, attending a public gathering or riding the bus,” said Walsh.

 IATA Travel Pass

The successful rollout of the IATA Travel Pass continues with a growing number of  airlines already using it in daily operations to support the validation of health credentials for travel.

“Whatever the rules are for vaccination requirements, the industry will be able to manage them with digital solutions, the leader of which is the IATA Travel Pass. It’s a matured solution being implemented across a growing number of global networks,” said Walsh.