Category: Uncategorized

Air cargo growth figures for January were “below expectations” while the outlook for the year ahead is uncertain, according to IATA.

The airline association’s latest monthly report shows that global air cargo demand in cargo tonne km terms increased by 2.7% year on year in January.

Capacity for the month was up by 11.4% aginst a year earlier – although it is still down around 8.9% on pre-Covid levels – and cargo load factors were down 4.6 percentage points year on year to 54.1%.

IATA director general Willie Walsh said: “Demand growth of 2.7% in January was below expectation, following the 9.3% recorded in December. This likely reflects a shift towards the more normal growth rate of 4.9% expected for this year.

“Looking ahead, however, we can expect cargo markets to be impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

“Sanction-related shifts in manufacturing and economic activity, rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are converging. Capacity is expected to come under greater pressure and rates are likely to rise. To what extent, however, it is still too early to predict.”

Looking at air cargo indicators, IATA pointed out that the purchasing managers index tracking export orders had dropped below the 50 point mark for the first time since August 2020, but added that inventory-to-sales ratios remained low.

On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, IATA said that overall it would have a negative impact on air cargo, but it may not cause too much of a drop off in demand levels.

“The impact on global markets is expected to be low as cargo carried to/from/within Russia accounted for just 0.6% of the global cargo carried by air in 2021,” IATA said, adding: “Several specialised cargo carriers are registered in Russia and Ukraine, particularly those involved with heavy lift operations.”

Looking at regional performance, Asia Pacific airlines registered a 4.9% year-on-year increase in cargo traffic in January, although this was “significantly” below the previous month’s 12% expansion.

“The zero-Covid policy in mainland China and Hong Kong is impacting performance,” IATA said. “Preparations for the Lunar New Year holiday may have also had an impact on volumes, but it is difficult to isolate.”

Carriers in the North America region posted a 1.2% decrease in cargo demand as supply chain congestion due to labor shortages, severe winter weather and issues with the deployment of 5G as well as a rise in inflation and weaker economic conditions affected growth.

In Europe, there was a 7% increase as the region was “more resilient” than most other regions.

“European carriers benefited from robust economic activity and an easing in capacity,” IATA said.

Middle Eastern carriers also registered a fall, with cargo traffic dropping 4.6% due to a “deterioration in traffic on several key routes such as Middle East-Asia, and Middle East-North America”.

Latin America carriers reported a January increase in cargo demand of 11.9% compared with a year ago, although this is “well below” pre-Covid levels, and African airlines saw cargo traffic increase by 12.4%.

10 March 2022   No: 14

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that the recovery in air travel slowed for both domestic and international in January 2022 compared to December 2021, owing to the imposition of travel restrictions following the emergence of Omicron last November.

Note: We are returning to year-on-year traffic comparisons, instead of comparisons with the 2019 period, unless otherwise noted. Owing to the low traffic base in 2021, some markets will show very high year-on-year growth rates, even if the size of these markets is still significantly smaller than they were in 2019.

•             Total demand for air travel in January 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was up 82.3% compared to January 2021. However, it was down 4.9% compared to the previous month (December 2021) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

•             January domestic air travel was up 41.5% compared to the year-ago period but fell 7.2% compared to December 2021 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

•             International RPKs rose 165.6% versus January 2021 but fell by 2.2% month-on-month between December 2021 and January 2022 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

 “The recovery in air travel continued in January, despite hitting a speed bump called Omicron. Strengthened border controls did not stop the spread of the variant. But where population immunity was strong, the public health systems were not overwhelmed. Many governments are now adjusting COVID-19 polices to align with those for other endemic viruses. This includes lifting travel restrictions that have had such a devastating impact on lives, economies and the freedom to travel,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

2021 Calendar year (% chg vs 2019)          World share in 20211      RPK        ASK        PLF (%-pt)2         PLF (level)3

Total Market      100.0%  82.3%    51.8%    10.8%    64.5%

Africa    1.9%      21.3%    10.6%    5.5%      62.3%

Asia Pacific          27.5%    19.4%    15.7%    1.8%      57.6%

Europe 24.9%    161.4%  106.7%  14.3%    68.2%

Latin America     6.5%      80.5%    59.2%    9.2%      78.2%

Middle East        6.5%      128.1%  64.8%    16.4%    59.1%

North America  32.7%    109.7%  59.0%    16.0%    66.3%

1% of global RPKs   2Change in load factor vs same period in 2019 3Load Factor Level

 International Passenger Markets

•             European carriers’ January international traffic rose 225.1% versus January 2021, which was up slightly compared to a 223.3% increase in December 2021 versus the same month in 2020. Capacity rose 129.9% and load factor climbed 19.4 percentage points to 66.4%.

•             Asia-Pacific airlines saw their January international traffic climb 124.4% compared to January 2021, down significantly from the 138.5% gain registered in December 2021 versus December 2020. Capacity rose 54.4% and the load factor was up 14.7 percentage points to 47.0%, still the lowest among regions.

 •            Middle Eastern airlines had a 145.0% demand rise in January compared to January 2021, well down compared to the 178.2% increase in December 2021, versus the same month in 2020. January capacity rose 71.7% versus the year-ago period, and load factor climbed 17.5 percentage points to 58.6%.

•             North American carriers experienced a 148.8% traffic rise in January versus the 2021 period, significantly decreased versus the 185.4% rise in December 2021 compared to December 2020. Capacity rose 78.0%, and load factor climbed 17.0 percentage points to 59.9%.

 •            Latin American airlines saw a 157.0% rise in January traffic, compared to the same month in 2021, an upturn over the 150.8% rise in December 2021 compared to December 2020. January capacity rose 91.2% and load factor increased 19.4 percentage points to 75.7%, which easily was the highest load factor among the regions for the 16th consecutive month.

 •            African airlines’ traffic rose 17.9% in January 2022 versus a year ago, a slowdown compared to the 26.3% year-over-year increase recorded in December 2021. January 2022 capacity was up 6.3% and load factor climbed 6.0 percentage points to 60.5%.

Domestic Passenger Markets

2021 Calendar year (% chg vs 2019)          World share in 20211  

RPK        ASK        PLF (%-pt)2         PLF (level)3

Domestic             62.4%    41.5%    27.2%    6.8%      67.4%

Australia              0.7%      33.4%    43.0%    -3.8%     53.4%

Brazil     1.9%      35.5%    32.3%    2.0%      83.5%

China P.R.            17.8%    -0.1%     3.2%      -2.0%     60.6%

India      2.2%      -18.0%  -13.7%  -3.4%     65.6%

Japan    1.1%      107.0%  51.1%    11.7%    43.4%

Russian Fed.       4.5%      23.8%    21.5%    1.6%      84.4%

US          25.7%    97.8%    51.7%    16.1%    69.0%

1% of global RPKs   2Change in load factor vs same period in 2019 3Load Factor Level

•             Japan’s domestic demand was 107%, which was the fastest year-on-year growth recorded, although on a seasonally adjusted basis, January 2022 traffic slipped 4.1% from December.

 •            India’s domestic RPKs fell by 18% year-on-year in January , which the biggest decline recorded for any of the domestic markets tracked by IATA. On a month-on-month basis, seasonally adjusted RPKs dropped by nearly 45% between December and January.

2022 vs 2019

Despite the strong traffic growth recorded in January 2022 compared to a year ago, passenger demand remains far below pre-COVID-19 levels. Total RPKs in January were down 49.6% compared to January 2019. International traffic was down 62.4%, with domestic traffic off by 26.5%.

  January 2022 vs. January 2019  World share in 20211      RPK        ASK        PLF (%-pt)2         PLF (level)3

Total Market      100.0%  82.3%    51.8%    10.8%    64.5%

International      1.9%      21.3%    10.6%    5.5%      62.3%

Domestic             27.5%    19.4%    15.7%    1.8%      57.6%

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

January figures do not include any impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict which began at the end of February. The resulting sanctions and airspace closures are expected to have a negative impact on travel, primarily among neighboring countries.

The Ukraine market accounted for 3.3% of European passenger traffic and 0.8% of global traffic in 2021.

 The Russian international market represented 5.7% of European traffic (excluding Russia domestic market) and 1.3% of global traffic in 2021.

 Airspace closures have led to rerouting or cancellations of flights on some routes, mostly in the Europe-Asia but also in Asia-North America market. This impact is mitigated owing to greatly diminished flight activity since borders in Asia were largely closed owing to COVID-19. In 2021, RPKs flown between Asia-North America and Asia-Europe accounted for 3.0%, and 4.5%, respectively, of global international RPKs.

In addition to these disruptions, the sudden spike in fuel prices is putting pressure on airline costs. “When we made our most recent industry financial forecast last autumn, we expected the airline industry to lose $11.6 billion in 2022 with jet fuel at $78/barrel and fuel accounting for 20% of costs. As of 4 March, jet fuel is trading at over $140/barrel. Absorbing such a massive hit on costs just as the industry is struggling to cut losses as it emerges from the two-year COVID-19 crisis is a huge challenge. If the jet fuel price stays that high, then over time, it is reasonable to expect that it will be reflected in airline yields,” said Walsh.

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for global air cargo markets showing slower growth in January 2022. Supply chain disruptions and capacity constraints, as well as a deterioration in economic conditions for the sector dampened demand.

Note: We are returning to year-on-year traffic comparisons, instead of comparisons with the 2019 period, unless otherwise noted. Cargo demand is tracking above pre-COVID-19 levels, although capacity is still constrained.

Global demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTKs*), was up 2.7% compared to January 2021 (3.2% for international operations). This was significantly lower than the 9.3% growth seen in December 2021 (11.1% for international operations).

Capacity was 11.4% above January 2021 (10.8% for international operations). While this is in positive territory, compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, capacity remains constrained, 8.9% below January 2019 levels.  

Supply chain disruptions as well as a deterioration in economic conditions for the sector are slowing growth. Several factors should be noted:

Supply chain disruptions resulted from flight cancellations due to labor shortages, winter weather and to a lesser extent the deployment of 5G in the USA, as well as the zero-COVID policy in mainland China and Hong Kong.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicator tracking global new export orders fell below the 50-mark in January for the first time since August 2020, indicating that a majority of surveyed businesses reported a fall in new export orders.

The January global Supplier Delivery Time Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was at 37.8. While values below 50 are normally favorable for air cargo, in current conditions it points to delivery times lengthening because of supply bottlenecks.

The inventory-to-sales ratio remains low. This is positive for air cargo as it means manufacturers may turn to air cargo to rapidly meet demand.

“Demand growth of 2.7% in January was below expectation, following the 9.3% recorded in December. This likely reflects a shift towards the more normal growth rate of 4.9% expected for this year. Looking ahead, however, we can expect cargo markets to be impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Sanction-related shifts in manufacturing and economic activity, rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are converging. Capacity is expected to come under greater pressure and rates are likely to rise. To what extent, however, it is still too early to predict,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.  

Russia Ukraine Conflict

The Russia Ukraine conflict will have a negative impact on air cargo. Airspace closures will stop direct connectivity to many markets connected to Russia. Overall, the impact on global markets is expected to be low as cargo carried to/from/within Russia accounted for just 0.6% of the global cargo carried by air in 2021. Several specialized cargo carriers are registered in Russia and Ukraine, particularly those involved with heavy lift operations.

January 2022 (% year-on-year)  World share1     CTK        ACTK     CLF (%-pt)2         CLF (level)3

Total Market      100.0%  2.7%      11.4%    -4.6%     54.1%

Africa    1.9%      12.4%    13.0%    -0.3%     49.2%

Asia Pacific          32.4%    4.9%      11.4%    -3.7%     60.9%

Europe 22.9%    7.0%      18.8%    -6.5%     58.4%

Latin America     2.2%      11.9%    12.9%    -0.4%     41.7%

Middle East        13.4%    -4.6%     6.2%      -5.8%     51.3%

North America  27.2%    -1.2%     8.7%      -4.7%     47.4%

1 % of industry CTKs in 2021  2 Change in load factor   3 Load factor level

January Regional Performance

•             Asia-Pacific airlines saw their air cargo volumes increase 4.9% in January 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. This was significantly below the previous month’s 12.0% expansion. Available capacity in the region was up 11.4% compared to January 2021, however it remains heavily constrained compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, down 15.4% compared to 2019. The zero-COVID policy in mainland China and Hong Kong is impacting performance. Preparations for the Lunar New Year holiday may have also had an impact on volumes, but it is difficult to isolate.

•             North American carriers posted a 1.2% decrease in cargo volumes in January 2022 compared to January 2021. This was significantly below December’s performance (7.7%). Supply chain congestion due to labor shortages, severe winter weather and issues with the deployment of 5G as well as a rise in inflation and weaker economic conditions affected growth. Capacity was up 8.7% compared to January 2021.

•             European carriers saw a 7.0% increase in cargo volumes in January 2022 compared to the same month in 2021. While this was slower than the previous month (10.6%), Europe was more resilient than most other regions. European carriers benefited from robust economic activity and an easing in capacity. Capacity was up 18.8% in January 2022 compared to January 2021, and down 8.1% compared to pre-crisis levels (2019).

•             Middle Eastern carriers experienced a 4.6% decrease in cargo volumes in January 2022. This was the weakest performance of all regions and a drop in performance compared to the previous month (2.2%). This was due to a deterioration in traffic on several key routes such as Middle East-Asia, and Middle East-North America. Capacity was up 6.2% compared to January 2021 but remains constrained compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, down 11.8% compared to the same month in 2019. 

•             Latin American carriers reported an increase of 11.9% in cargo volumes in January 2022 compared to the 2021 period. This was a decline from the previous month’s performance (19.4%). Capacity in January was down 12.9% compared to the same month in 2021 and remains well below compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, down 28.9% versus 2019.

•             African airlines’ saw cargo volumes increase by 12.4% in January 2022 compared to January 2021. The region was the strongest performer. Capacity was 13.0% above January 2021 levels.

By Rebecca Jeffrey

Surcharge are being increased as supply chain disruption due to the Ukraine invasion continues.

From March 7, FedEx Express is introducing increasing its peak surcharges on FedEx Express parcel and freight shipments and TNT shipments for some shipments moving between Asia Pacific (APAC) and countries in APAC, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), and Middle East, Indian subcontinent and Africa (MEISA).

The increases apply to some shipments moving between Europe and countries in all regions; and some shipments moving between India and countries in APAC, Europe, and MEISA.

“Due to continued disruptions in the global supply chain, air cargo capacity remains limited. We are incurring incremental costs as we continue to adjust our international networks and operate in this constrained environment,” said FedEx.

Express logistics firm UPS also increased the peak/demand surcharges applied to shipments from major Asia Pacific origins (excluding China, Hong Kong SAR or Macau SAR) to 19 countries in Europe on February 27, until further notice.

DHL Express has not announced any new charges, but said on its website: “We have temporarily suspended DHL Express shipments to and from Ukraine, Belarus and for inbound shipments to Russia.”

Forwarder Scan Global Logistics, which has temporarily suspended bookings to/from Russia and Belarus from 4-18 March, also said in a release: “Cargolux has introduced a war surcharge of USD 0.20/kg from cargo to and from Asia.”

When asked to confirm the war surcharge, Cargolux told Air Cargo News that it has not released an “official statement”.

SGL added that “fuel Surcharge increases are starting to be announced by numerous airlines” as oil prices rise.

Last week, freight forwarders warned of higher supply chain costs as the impact of the invasion of Ukraine disrupts transportation operations.

Airspace restrictions have been imposed by Russia, the UK, Canada, the, EU and US.

by MGI

Empat perusahaan ekspedisi (airfreight forwarder) terkemuka global baru saja mengumumkan penangguhan layanan ke Rusia. Langkah itu dilakukan menyusul adanya sanksi ekonomi yang diberikan oleh sejumlah negara sebagai akibat dari invasi Rusia ke Ukraina.

Menurut laporan Air Cargo News London keempat airfreight forwarder yang baru saja mengambil keputusan tersebut adalah Kuehne+Nagel, DSV, DB Schenker, dan DHL.

Dalam edaran yang ditujukan kepada customer-nya, Kuehne+Nagel mengatakan bahwa sebagian besar operator angkutan darat, laut, dan udara telah menghentikan layanan ke Rusia. Akibatnya, pengirim telah menangguhkan semua pengiriman impor ke negara tersebut sambil menunggu pemberitahuan lebih lanjut, kecuali untuk obat-obatan, peralatan kesehatan, dan bantuan kemanusiaan.

“Semua barang yang dipesan sebelumnya dan saat ini masih dalam perjalanan akan ditangani sebaik dan semaksimal mungkin,” kata Kuehne+Nagel dalam edaran tersebut.

Hal yang sama diumumkan forwarder Denmark DSV. Dalam edarannya baru-baru ini, DSV juga menyampaikan akan menangguhkan sementara semua pengiriman ke Rusia dan Belarus.

“Ini berlaku untuk semua jenis transportasi, baik darat, udara, maupun laut,” kata perusahaan yang bermarkas di Kopenhagen tersebut.

“Ini artinya, DSV tidak menerima pemesanan baru ke negara-negara ini dengan pengecualian obat-obatan, peralatan kesehatan,  dan bantuan kemanusiaan. Semua barang yang dipesan sebelumnya dan saat ini masih dalam perjalanan akan ditangani sebaik dan semaksimal mungkin,” kata DSV dalam pernyataannya.

Hal yang sama diumumkan DB Schenker. “Kami telah memutuskan untuk menangguhkan sementara semua pengiriman ke dan dari Rusia. Ini berlaku untuk transportasi darat, udara dan laut,” kata DB Schenker.

DHL bahakan sudah lebih dahulu melakukan hal tersebut. Perusahaan yang didirikan di AS namun diakusisi Deutsche Post  Jerman pada tahun 1998 tersebut mengatakan bahwa layanan masuk ke Rusia dan Belarusia telah ditangguhkan dan tidak akan menerima pengiriman ke negara-negara tersebut sampai pemberitahuan lebih lanjut.

“Kami memantau situasi dengan cermat dan kami akan terus memberi tahu perkembangan lebih lanjut,” kata DHL dalam keterangannya.

By Donny Kwok and Anne Marie Roantree

COVID-19 outbreak in Hong Kong

A patient and her relative wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) wait outside the Accident and Emergency (A&E) department, following the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak, in Hong Kong, China March 4, 2022. REUTERS/Tyrone Siu

HONG KONG, March 5 (Reuters) – Hong Kong reported 37,529 new coronavirus infections on Saturday and 150 deaths, as the city clings to a “zero-COVID” strategy despite spiralling cases that have spread through care homes and overwhelmed healthcare facilities.

Many supermarket shelves were bare again on Saturday even as the government said there was plenty of fresh food supplies from the mainland and the public should not over-purchase.

Two of the city’s largest consumer retail chains started rationing some food and drug items on Friday to curb panic buying amid fears of a citywide lockdown. read more

Hong Kong leader Carrie Lam has said there will not be a “complete lockdown” although many residents are unnerved and frustrated by what they see as mixed messages and policy tweaks on an almost daily basis.

Health authorities said on Saturday more than 900 care homes have been infected. The latest tally of 37,529 cases is down from 52,523 on Friday. This compares with about 100 infections at the start of February and a clean three-month streak of zero cases before the end of December.

As cases hit record highs, Hong Kong now has its most stringent restrictions in place since the pandemic started, with group gatherings limited to two people, masks compulsory and gyms, cinemas and most public venues closed. Flights into the city from nine countries are banned.

Government expert adviser Professor David Hui said on Saturday he believes around 15% of Hong Kong’s 7.4 million people are already infected with COVID-19, broadcaster RTHK reported.

Air Passenger Numbers to Recover in 2024

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) expects overall traveler numbers to reach 4.0 billion in 2024 (counting multi-sector connecting trips as one passenger), exceeding pre-COVID-19 levels (103% of the 2019 total).

Expectations for the shape of the near-term recovery have shifted slightly, reflecting the evolution of government-imposed travel restrictions in some markets. The overall picture presented in the latest update to IATA’s long-term forecast, however, is unchanged from what was expected in November, prior to the Omicron variant.

“The trajectory for the recovery in passenger numbers from COVID-19 was not changed by the Omicron variant. People want to travel. And when travel restrictions are lifted, they return to the skies. There is still a long way to go to reach a normal state of affairs, but the forecast for the evolution in passenger numbers gives good reason to be optimistic,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

The February update to the long-term forecast includes the following highlights:

•             In 2021, overall traveler numbers were 47% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 83% in 2022, 94% in 2023, 103% in 2024 and 111% in 2025.

•             In 2021, international traveler numbers were 27% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 69% in 2022, 82% in 2023, 92% in 2024 and 101% in 2025.

This is a slightly more optimistic near-term international recovery scenario compared to November 2021, based on the progressive relaxation or elimination of travel restrictions in many markets. This has seen improvements in the major North Atlantic and intra-European markets, strengthening the baseline for recovery. Asia-Pacific is expected to continue to lag the recovery with the region’s largest market, China, not showing any signs of relaxing its severe border measures in the near future.

•             In 2021, domestic traveler numbers were 61% of 2019 levels. This is expected to improve to 93% in 2022, 103% in 2023, 111% in 2024 and 118% in 2025.

The outlook for the evolution of domestic traveler numbers is slightly more pessimistic than in November. While the US and Russian domestic markets have recovered, the same is not true for the other major domestic markets of China, Canada, Japan and Australia.

“The biggest and most immediate drivers of passenger numbers are the restrictions that governments place on travel. Fortunately, more governments have understood that travel restrictions have little to no long-term impact on the spread of a virus. And the economic and social hardship caused for very limited benefit is simply no longer acceptable in a growing number of markets. As a result, the progressive removal of restrictions is giving a much-needed boost to the prospects for travel,” said Walsh.

IATA reiterates its call for:

•             The removal of all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine

•             Pre-departure antigen testing to enable quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travelers

•             Removing all travel bans, and

•             Accelerating the easing of travel restrictions in recognition that travelers pose no greater risk for COVID-19 spread than already exists in the general population.

Regional Variations

Not all markets or market sectors are recovering at the same pace.

“In general, we are moving in the right direction, but there are some concerns. Asia-Pacific is the laggard of the recovery. While Australia and New Zealand have announced measures to reconnect with the world, China is showing no signs of relaxing its zero-COVID strategy. The resulting localized lock-downs in its domestic market are depressing global passenger numbers even as other major markets like the US are largely back to normal,” said Walsh.

Asia-Pacific: The slow removal of international travel restrictions, and the likelihood of renewed domestic restrictions during COVID outbreaks, mean that traffic to/from/within Asia Pacific will only reach 68% of 2019 levels in 2022, the weakest outcome of the main regions. 2019 levels should be recovered in 2025 (109%) due to a slow recovery on international traffic in the region.

Europe: In the next few years, the intra-Europe market is expected to benefit from passenger preferences for short-haul travel as confidence rebuilds. This will be facilitated by increasingly harmonized and restriction-free movement within the EU. Total passenger numbers to/from/within Europe are expected to reach 86% of 2019 values in 2022, before making a full recovery in 2024 (105%).

North America: After a resilient 2021, traffic to/from/within North America will continue to perform strongly in 2022 as the US domestic market returns to pre-crisis trends, and with ongoing improvements in international travel. In 2022, passenger numbers will reach 94% of 2019 levels, and full recovery is expected in 2023 (102%), ahead of other regions.

Africa: Africa’s passenger traffic prospects are somewhat weaker in the near-term, due to slow progress in vaccinating the population, and the impact of the crisis on developing economies. Passenger numbers to/from/within Africa will recover more gradually than in other regions, reaching 76% of 2019 levels in 2022, surpassing pre-crisis levels only in 2025 (101%).

Middle East: With limited short-haul markets, the Middle East focus on long-haul connectivity through its hubs is expected to result in slower recovery. Passenger numbers to/from/within the Middle East are expected to reach 81% of 2019 levels in 2022, 98% in 2024 and 105% in 2025.

Latin America: Traffic to/from/within Latin America has been relatively resilient during the pandemic and is forecast to see a strong 2022, with limited travel restrictions and dynamic passenger flows within the region and to/from North America. 2019 passenger numbers are forecast to be surpassed in 2023 for Central America (102%), followed by South America in 2024 (103%) and the Caribbean in 2025 (101%).

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

The forecast does not calculate the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. In general, air transport is resilient against shocks and this conflict is unlikely to impact the long-term growth of air transport. It is too early to estimate what the near-term consequences will be for aviation, but it is clear that there are downside risks, in particular in markets with exposure to the conflict.

Sensitivity factors will include the geographic extent, severity, and time-period for sanctions and/or airspace closures. These impacts would be felt most severely in Russia, Ukraine and neighboring areas.  Pre-COVID-19, Russia, was the 11th largest market for air transport services in terms of passenger numbers, including its large domestic market. Ukraine ranked 48.

The impact on airline costs as a result of fluctuations in energy prices or rerouting to avoid Russian airspace could have broader implications. Consumer confidence and economic activity are likely to be impacted even outside of Eastern Europe. 

By Rebecca Jeffrey

The unique Antonov An-225 “Mriya” freighter, the world’s largest aircraft, has reportedly been destroyed in fighting following the invasion of Ukraine.

In a Twitter post on February 27, the Ukraine Government said: “The biggest plane in the world “Myria” (The Dream) was destroyed by Russian occupants on an airfield near Kiev.”

On February 24, the Ministry of Internal Affairs (MIA) of Ukraine confirmed that Russian military forces had attacked Antonov (Hostomel) Airport.

Ukraine’s state-owned aerospace and defence company Ukroboronprom said in a press release on February 27 that the 250-tonne payload aircraft was destroyed at Antonov’s airfield premises in Gostomel near Kyiv, where it was undergoing repair and routine maintenance.

It added that restoration of the aircraft “will cost over $3bn” and take “over five years”.

However, in a second press release on February 27, Ukroboronprom casted doubt over the state of the aircraft. Referencing the An-225’s maintenance work on February 24, it said: “According to the director of Antonov Airlines, one of the engines was dismantled for repairs and the plane wasn’t able to take off that day, although the appropriate commands were given.

“Currently it is impossible to assess the plane’s condition and the possibility and cost of its restoring due the lack of access to the aircraft as the control over the airport is taken by the Russian occupiers.”

Antonov has not responded to Air Cargo News’ request for comment, but in a Twitter post on February 27 it did not confirm the destruction of the aircraft. “Currently, until the AN-225 has been inspected by experts, we cannot report on the technical condition of the aircraft.”

In an October 2021 press release, Antonov said that throughout the pandemic, the AN-225 has been commissioned to transport medical supplies in volumes unmatched by other aircraft per flight and has carried more than 1,300 tonnes of medical and humanitarian cargo in 2020 alone.

Antonov Airlines specialises in the transportation of outsized and project cargo worldwide using its fleet of seven AN-124-100 “Ruslan” aircraft, two of which have a payload up to 150 tonnes, its 60-tonne payload AN-22, and its unique 250-tonne payload AN-225 “Mriya”, which is the largest aircraft in the world, as well as smaller AN-74 and AN-26 aircraft.

Antonov Airlines is a division of Antonov Company, headquartered in Kyiv, Ukraine, and a Ukrainian state-owned enterprise, which designs, develops, produces, and maintains the AN aircraft.

By Damian Brett

Ukrainian airspace has been closed as navigation services declare the region an active conflict zone.

Early this morning, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) issued a conflict zone information bulletin covering Kiev, Lviv, Dnipropetrovsk, Simferopol and Odessa flight information regions for all altitudes.

Additionally, as a precautionary measure, the EASA said that operators should exercise extreme caution and avoid using the airspace within 100 nautical miles of the Belarussian and Russia-Ukraine border.

Ukraine’s navigation service, UkSATSE, also suspended the provision of navigation services this morning.

FlightGlobal reports that Russian federal air transport regulator Rosaviatsia says that flights to a number of southern Russian airports are “temporarily limited” owing to “aggravation of the situation in Ukraine”.

These affected airports include Rostov Platov, Voronezch, Krasnodar, Anapa, Stavropol, Gelendzhik, Belgorod, Elista, Bryansk, Kursk, and Simferopol.

The moves comes as Russian military convoys entered Ukraine this morning and missile strikes and explosions were reported at several sites in the country.

Explosions have been reported at several of Ukraine’s airports.

Meanwhile, Flexport’s supply chain economist Chris Rogers has been examining the potential impact of the Ukraine crisis on trade.

Rogers said that there are four major risks to supply chains: Physical availability of commodities produced in Ukraine and Russia (specifically natural gas and oil); global commodity prices (already high) could surge further – adding to inflation pressures; physical disruption of logistics networks as flights are diverted around the conflict zone and transportation insurance costs are likely to rise; and widening sanctions could complicate customs and billing activities – with in an extreme case Russia excluded from the Swift payments system – leaving many reliant on supplies from Russia without access to key materials.

Rogers added that there is also the potential risk of cyber-security incursions which may include logistics firms as collateral damage.

On the flight diversions, Flexport chief executive Ryan Petersen has already reported (February 22) that one charter flights was forced to divert mid-route. Others are now operating on a different route avoiding Ukrainian airspace.

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data showing growing momentum in the recovery of air travel as restrictions are lifted.

Improved Ticket Sales

IATA reported a sharp 11-percentage point increase for international tickets sold in recent weeks (in proportion to 2019 sales).

•             In the period around 8 February (7 day moving average) the number of tickets sold stood at 49% of the same period in 2019.

•             In the period around 25 January (7 day moving average) the number of tickets sold stood at 38% of the same period in 2019.

•             The 11-percentage point improvement between the January and February periods is the fastest such increase for any two-week period since the crisis began.

Progressive Alleviation of COVID-19 Measures

The jump in ticket sales comes as more governments announce a relaxation of COVID-19 border restrictions. An IATA survey of travel restrictions for the world’s top 50 air travel markets (comprising 92% of global demand in 2019 as measured by revenue passenger kilometers) revealed the growing access available to vaccinated travelers.

•             18 markets (comprising about 20% of 2019 demand) are open to vaccinated travelers without quarantine or pre-departure testing requirements.

•             28 markets are open to vaccinated travelers without quarantine requirements (including the 18 markets noted above). This comprises about 50% of 2019 demand.

•             37 markets (comprising about 60% of 2019 demand) are open to vaccinated travelers under varying conditions (18 having no restrictions, others requiring testing or quarantine or both).

These numbers reflect a spate of relaxations announced around the world, including in Australia, France, the Philippines, the UK, Switzerland, and Sweden among them.

“Momentum toward normalizing traffic is growing. Vaccinated travelers have the potential to travel much more extensively with fewer hassles than even a few weeks ago. This is giving growing numbers of travelers the confidence to buy tickets. And that is good news! Now we need to further accelerate the removal of travel restrictions. While recent progress is impressive, the world remains far from 2019 levels of connectivity. Thirteen of the top 50 travel markets still do not provide easy access to all vaccinated travelers. That includes major economies like China, Japan, Russia, Indonesia, and Italy,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

IATA continues to call for:

•             Removing all travel barriers (including quarantine and testing) for those fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccine,

•             Enabling quarantine-free travel for non-vaccinated travelers with a negative pre-departure antigen test result,

•             Removing travel bans, and,

•             Accelerating the easing of travel restrictions in recognition that travelers pose no greater risk for COVID-19 spread than already exists in the general population.

“Travel restrictions have had a severe impact on people and on economies. They have not, however, stopped the spread of the virus. And it is time for their removal as we learn to live and travel in a world that will have risks of COVID-19 for the foreseeable future. This means putting a stop to the singling out of the traveling population for special measures. In nearly all cases, travelers don’t bring any more risk to a market than is already there. Many governments have recognized this already and removed restrictions. Many more need to follow,” said Walsh.