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Latest Xeneta figures show air cargo demand increased 3% year-on-year in September, moderating from the 5% growth recorded in August
Air cargo demand continued to grow in September but settled down from the highs recorded in August and July.
The latest figures from data provider Xeneta show that air cargo demand increased by 3% year on year in September, down from 5% in August, while capacity was up 3% and the cargo load factor was down one percentage point year on year at 59%.
The growth rate is down on the front-loading inspired 5% increases registered in the two preceding months.
“Over the previous two months, we’ve seen how air cargo has gained from ‘piggybacking’ on global uncertainty, whether that’s frontloading supply chains or modal shift from ocean to air to move goods more quickly before tariffs took hold,” said Xeneta’s chief airfreight officer, Niall van de Wouw.
“September’s data is an early indication that this is lessening as some stability starts to return on major corridors and everything is less hectic on a global level.”
September 2025’s supply and demand data from Xeneta
September 2025’s supply and demand data from Xeneta
While trade lanes connected to the US continue to come under pressure due to the Trump administration’s tariff strategy and ending of the de minimis exemption, volumes to Europe have been on the rise as e-commerce players change their focus.
”Burgeoning e-commerce volumes, a result of the Chinese e-commerce behemoths shifting their focus towards European consumers, helped to push volumes 4% higher on the Asia–Europe corridor in the first three weeks of September compared to the previous month,” said Xeneta.
The e-commerce firms’ pivot towards Europe from the US was “astonishing” said van de Wouw.
“Demand was also supported by the pre–Golden Week cargo rush as well as mode shift due to the suspension of China–Europe rail links at the Polish border.”
Europe to the US air cargo markets also saw lower volumes in September as the earlier frontloading due to extended US tariff deadlines disrupted traditional seasonal flows.
Super Typhoon Ragasa also affected performance during the month as the storm disrupted East Asian hubs in the final week of September, leaving monthly volumes ”up by only” 3% on August.
Van de Wouw said demand growth for the year as a whole is now expected to come in at around 3-4%, a better-than-expected performance.
“When we reported better-than-expected demand in July and August, our question was ‘how long will it last?’. In September, we started to see the market growth slowing, and we expect this to continue for the rest of the year.”
The fourth quarter, in contrast, may not be as good as hoped for in July and August.
Rate round-up
The lower demand levels also put pressure on freight rates, which were down 4% on last year to $2.54 per kg.
Xeneta said the September yield decline was the fifth in a row.
US tariffs disrupted seasonal air cargo flows
”Much of the downward pressure came from muted activity on Transatlantic and Transpacific routes, where repeated extensions of US tariff deadlines appear to have pulled forward volumes into the summer months,” Xeneta said.
Across those two trade lanes rates were down 2-3% each compared with a month ago. And while production and volumes may have switched to Southeast Asia, spot rates from that region to the US slipped by 2% month on month and by 22% compared with a year ago.
“The reduction of e-commerce volumes due to US global de minimis bans left a gaping hole in the Transpacific market, marked by carriers’ agility in shifting freighter capacity away from the region,” Xeneta said.
”Asia-to-Europe trade lanes offered a little more cheer as September spot rates from Northeast and Southeast Asia to Europe edged up by 4% month on month, supported by the run-up to the peak shipping season. Compared with a year ago, however, they were down -5% and -21% respectively.”
As a result of the rate fluctuations, shippers and forwarders are looking to secure longer term deals. Xeneta said that in the third quarter, the share of six-month deals increased by 10 percentage points year on year to 22% “timed to expire just after the peak season and ahead of the next annual cycle”.
“There is such limited bandwidth for shippers. They are looking for stability at a reasonable, competitive rate, and want to go long on contract negotiations, preferably, because it’s such a painful process for them trying to plan on a quarter-by-quarter basis,” van de Wouw said.
Freight forwarders are selling long, but are buying close to 50% short