By Damian BrettDamian Brett13 November 2025
Save articlePlease Sign in to your account to use this feature
Industry consultant warns of muted 2026 prospects after near-record growth run, but cites US inventory gaps and peak freighter hours as positive indicators
While the general outlook for air cargo in 2026 is muted, there are also reasons to be optimistic about the coming 12 months, according to Ryan Keyrouse, chief executive of consultant Rotate.
Speaking at last week’s TIACA Air Cargo Forum event in Abu Dhabi, Keyrouse said that expectations for demand growth in 2026 were muted given the industry has reported 26 consecutive months of year-on-year growth – the record is 31 months – and “what goes up, must come down”.
He added that container shipping firms were improving reliability levels after a few years of disruption that had resulted in a modal shift to air, and as a result, these volumes would likely switch back to ocean transport.
However, he added that there were also several reasons to be optimistic.
Firstly, he said US sales levels had continued to outstrip inventory levels in seven of the last eight months, which he said was “usually a good sign for air cargo”.
Secondly, freighters were still in high demand, with cargo aircraft utilisation at a record high of 15 block hours per day, which indicated healthy demand.
“If freighters are flying, they are carrying something,” said Keyrouse. “I think these are reasons to be optimistic for next year.”
He added that there is also uncertainty surrounding the US tariff strategy next year. But while some may see this as a reason to be unsure about demand levels in 2026, it could also be seen as a positive.
“The tariffs are maybe even a reason to be optimistic,” he said. “If we completely have to change everything again, it will mess up all the supply chains, and that is usually good for air cargo, as we have seen this year.”
Looking longer term, Rotate is expecting air cargo to grow at an average of around 3% per year, tracking GDP growth levels. However, he added that South Asia and Southeast Asia are expected to grow at a higher level as those economies outperform global GDP levels.
Meanwhile, capacity is next year expected to grow at around 6-7% as widebody passenger and freighter aircraft are added to the market.
A year in review
Keyrouse said that 2025 was a year that had failed to disappoint in terms of demand, with Rotate expecting tonnages to end the year around 3.9% higher than 2024 levels.
He said there were several reasons behind the demand growth registered this year: front loading ahead of incoming US tariffs, strong sales vs inventory levels in the US and shifting supply chains.
On the latter, he said that while demand from China to the US may have fallen, these US volumes had shifted to Southeast Asia.
Meanwhile, China had changed its focus to Europe, Southeast Asia and the Middle East.
“Everybody expected turmoil but everything just shifted and we continued to see growth,” he said.
Rotate figures show that between May and July, demand from China to the US declined by 29% year on year, while demand from ‘other’ Asia Pacific to the US was up 48%, more than compensating for the decline from China.
Meanwhile, volumes from China to Europe increased by 35% and from China to ‘Other’ Asia Pacific improved by 25%.
In line with changing demand, cargo carriers had rapidly shifted capacity to growth markets, with Atlas, China Airlines, China Cargo, Emirates and FedEx amongst those adding the most capacity to rapidly growing Vietnam.