Author: Admin

By Rebecca Jeffrey

Source: CMA CGM

The US Department of Transportation (DOT) has granted CMA CGM Air Cargo a foreign air carrier permit.

“We tentatively find and conclude that the public interest warrants granting the applicant a foreign air carrier permit,” said the DOT in a document published on the government’s Regulation.gov website.

Air Cargo News reported that CMA CGM Air Cargo applied for a US foreign air carrier permit last month as CMA CGM moves forward with plans to launch its own Air Operator Certificate (AOC) airline in the first half of this year.

The order, issued on March 16, outlines permission for foreign scheduled and charter cargo air transportation of property and mail between the US and the European Union.

CMA CGM Air Cargo has also been granted an exemption allowing it to carry out services until its permit becomes effective.

The US application document confirms that CMA CGM Air Cargo plans to begin operations in Spring 2022 with service between Paris, France and Chicago in Illinois, New York and Atlanta in Georgia.

Parent CMA CGM has ordered two Boeing 777Fs, four Airbus A350Fs and one A330-200 to be converted into a freighter.

Founded in 2021, CMA CGM is the cargo airline division of the CMA CGM shipping group. It currently has a fleet of four Airbus A330-200Fs, operated by Air Belgium.

CMA CGM is not the only shipping company venturing into the airfreight sector. Mediterranean Shipping Co. (MSC) is interested in acquiring a stake in Italian state airline ITA Airways.

By Rebecca Jeffrey

Sanctions imposed on Russian aircraft fleets are further squeezing air cargo capacity in an already constrained market.

Pierre Van Der Stichele, vice president of global freight at aviation services group Air Partner told Air Cargo News that airspace bans on Russian aircraft imposed by the EU, US and others have added to the existing pressure on airfreight capacity caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and ongoing seafreight congestion.

“Sanctions affecting Russian carriers have significantly impacted the air cargo industry,” said Stichele. “Freighter capacity has already been heavily reduced by the pandemic; the disappearance of additional capacity due to sanctions only exacerbates the difficulties facing the air cargo industry.”

Volga-Dnepr Group’s Volga-Dnepr Airlines normally operates a fleet of 12 Antonov-124-100 aircraft and five Ilyushin-76-TD-90-VD aircraft, but these aircraft are now restricted to domestic operations.

The Volga-Dnepr Group (VDG) recently confirmed that it has taken the decision to temporarily suspend operations at its AirBridgeCargo and Atran Airlines subsidiaries in response to sanctions affecting lessors and the decision of Bermuda Civil Aviation Authority (BCCA) to suspend all airworthiness certificates for Russian aircraft on its registry.

AirBridgeCargo’s fleet consists of 17 Boeing 747 freighters and 1 Boeing 777 F. Atran Airlines’ fleet comprises five B737Fs.

VDG partner company, UK-registered Cargologicair operates two 747-400Fs, while Leipzig-based VDG partner company Cargologic Germany operates four 737Fs. No activity has been seen for either airline on Flightradar24 for the last seven days.

Stichele pointed out that Ukranian Antonov Airlines, whose unique AN-225 aircraft was recently destroyed, is currently using its remaining fleet for humanitarian relief flights.

“Additionally, the Ukrainian Antonov Airlines, whilst still operating its remaining AN124s, is focusing its serviceable fleet solely on relief efforts in support of Ukranian refugees. This leaves only one outsized cargo operator available for all commercial project cargo demands, the AN124 operated by Maximus Air Cargo.”

He added: “The situation has also driven up fuel prices to record levels, however,  the high level of demand is showing no sign of stopping.”

Antonov Airlines specialises in the transportation of outsized and project cargo worldwide using its fleet of seven AN-124-100 “Ruslan” aircraft, two of which have a payload up to 150 tonnes, its 60-tonne payload AN-22, and its unique 250-tonne payload AN-225 “Mriya”, which is the largest aircraft in the world, as well as smaller AN-74 and AN-26 aircraft.

Stichele added that P&O stopping its ferry operations while it carried out mass redundancy procedures put extra pressure on the airfreight sector, already under pressure from the pandemic and seafreight congestion.

“The ongoing situation with P&O Ferries presents the risk of severe port delays, particularly at Dover and Calais. The halting of these ferries and the group’s operations creates a surge of demand for other forms of travel such as rival ferry companies or the Euro Tunnel.

“This increase in demand will have a severe effect on already stretched cargo and freight capacity. Over 15% of all the freight and cargo capacity carried in and out of the UK is provided by P&O Ferries. Demand and costs for these services are at an all-time high and reorganising alternative means of delivery will be slow and costly.

“We have seen an increased interest in airfreight in the wake of previous situations that delayed sea freight services, such as the Suez Canal blockage last year. Additionally, there has already been a marked shift from sea to air due to ongoing seafreight problems as a result of pandemic-related disruption. We expect to see this trend continue as airfreight continues to become an ever more attractive option for exporters.”

EVA Airways (EVA Air) has announced plans to convert three Boeing 777-300ER passenger jets into freighters after reporting net income of TW$6.6 billion or US$232 million for 2021, on the back of strong cargo demand.

The Taiwanese carrier’s strong performance, which reversed losses amounting to TW$3.36 billion (US$120 million) in 2021, was largely attributed to a 70.3 percent increase in cargo revenue at TW$85.2 billion or around US$3.01 billion, according to EVA Air’s financial report issued on 14 March.

Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) will convert the long-haul wide body aircraft, with the total transaction price estimated at US$120 million or US$40 million apiece.

Also read: IAI marks milestone in B777-300ER cargo conversion

The airline, which currently operates 34 B777-300ERs and eight B777Fs in its fleet, said that whilst the redesigned Boeing 777-300ERSF offers six tonnes less payload capacity than the 777F at 100 tonnes, its longer frame offers 25 percent more cargo volume, making it suitable for conducting e-commerce operations.

The 777-300ERSF programme, a partnership between IAI and aircraft lessor AerCap, is due to enter service this year. It is considered the most successful wide body cargo variant, with almost 850 sold, according to IAI’s website.

22 March 2022  

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced the launch of the IATA Recommended Practice Per-Passenger CO2 Calculation Methodology. IATA’s Methodology, using verified airline operational data, provides the most accurate calculation methodology for the industry to quantify CO2 emissions per passenger for a specific flight.

As travelers, corporate travel managers, and travel agents are increasingly demanding precise flight CO2 emission information, an accurate and standardized calculation methodology is critical. This is particularly true in the corporate sector where such calculations are needed to underpin voluntary emissions reductions targets.

“Airlines have worked together through IATA to develop an accurate and transparent methodology using verified airline operational data. This provides the most accurate CO2 calculation for organizations and individuals to make informed choices about flying sustainably. This includes decisions on investing in voluntary carbon offsetting or sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) use,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

IATA’s Methodology takes into account the following factors:

•             Guidance on fuel measurement, aligned with the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA)

•             Clearly defined scope to calculate CO2 emissions in relation to airlines’ flying activities 

•             Guidance on non-CO2 related emissions and Radiative Forcing Index (RFI)

•             Weight based calculation principle: allocation of CO2 emission by passenger and belly cargo

•             Guidance on passenger weight, using actual and standard weight

•             Emissions Factor for conversion of jet fuel consumption to CO2, fully aligned with CORSIA

•             Cabin class weighting and multipliers to reflect different cabin configurations of airlines

•             Guidance on SAF and carbon offsets as part of the CO2 calculation

“The plethora of carbon calculation methodologies with varying results creates confusion and dents consumer confidence. Aviation is committed to achieving net zero by 2050. By creating an accepted industry standard for calculating aviation’s carbon emissions, we are putting in place essential support to achieve this goal. The IATA Passenger CO2 Calculation Methodology is the most authoritative tool and it is ready for airlines, travel agents, and passengers to adopt,” added Walsh.

By Rebecca Jeffrey

Sanctions imposed on Russian aircraft fleets are further squeezing air cargo capacity in an already constrained market.

Pierre Van Der Stichele, vice president of global freight at aviation services group Air Partner told Air Cargo News that airspace bans on Russian aircraft imposed by the EU, US and others have added to the existing pressure on airfreight capacity caused by the Covid-19 pandemic and ongoing seafreight congestion.

“Sanctions affecting Russian carriers have significantly impacted the air cargo industry,” said Stichele. “Freighter capacity has already been heavily reduced by the pandemic; the disappearance of additional capacity due to sanctions only exacerbates the difficulties facing the air cargo industry.”

Volga-Dnepr Group’s Volga-Dnepr Airlines normally operates a fleet of 12 Antonov-124-100 aircraft and five Ilyushin-76-TD-90-VD aircraft, but these aircraft are now restricted to domestic operations.

The Volga-Dnepr Group (VDG) recently confirmed that it has taken the decision to temporarily suspend operations at its AirBridgeCargo and Atran Airlines subsidiaries in response to sanctions affecting lessors and the decision of Bermuda Civil Aviation Authority (BCCA) to suspend all airworthiness certificates for Russian aircraft on its registry.

AirBridgeCargo’s fleet consists of 17 Boeing 747 freighters and 1 Boeing 777 F. Atran Airlines’ fleet comprises five B737Fs.

VDG partner company, UK-registered Cargologicair operates two 747-400Fs, while Leipzig-based VDG partner company Cargologic Germany operates four 737Fs. No activity has been seen for either airline on Flightradar24 for the last seven days.

Stichele pointed out that Ukranian Antonov Airlines, whose unique AN-225 aircraft was recently destroyed, is currently using its remaining fleet for humanitarian relief flights.

“Additionally, the Ukrainian Antonov Airlines, whilst still operating its remaining AN124s, is focusing its serviceable fleet solely on relief efforts in support of Ukranian refugees. This leaves only one outsized cargo operator available for all commercial project cargo demands, the AN124 operated by Maximus Air Cargo.”

He added: “The situation has also driven up fuel prices to record levels, however,  the high level of demand is showing no sign of stopping.”

Antonov Airlines specialises in the transportation of outsized and project cargo worldwide using its fleet of seven AN-124-100 “Ruslan” aircraft, two of which have a payload up to 150 tonnes, its 60-tonne payload AN-22, and its unique 250-tonne payload AN-225 “Mriya”, which is the largest aircraft in the world, as well as smaller AN-74 and AN-26 aircraft.

Stichele added that P&O stopping its ferry operations while it carried out mass redundancy procedures put extra pressure on the airfreight sector, already under pressure from the pandemic and seafreight congestion.

“The ongoing situation with P&O Ferries presents the risk of severe port delays, particularly at Dover and Calais. The halting of these ferries and the group’s operations creates a surge of demand for other forms of travel such as rival ferry companies or the Euro Tunnel.

“This increase in demand will have a severe effect on already stretched cargo and freight capacity. Over 15% of all the freight and cargo capacity carried in and out of the UK is provided by P&O Ferries. Demand and costs for these services are at an all-time high and reorganising alternative means of delivery will be slow and costly.

“We have seen an increased interest in airfreight in the wake of previous situations that delayed sea freight services, such as the Suez Canal blockage last year. Additionally, there has already been a marked shift from sea to air due to ongoing seafreight problems as a result of pandemic-related disruption. We expect to see this trend continue as airfreight continues to become an ever more attractive option for exporters.”

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) welcomed the increasing momentum towards re-opening of borders and relaxation of travel restrictions, as COVID-19 moves into the endemic phase.

An IATA survey of travel restrictions for the world’s top 50 air travel markets (comprising 88% of international demand in 2019 as measured by revenue passenger kilometers) revealed the growing access available to vaccinated travelers:

•             25 markets representing 38% of 2019 international demand are open to vaccinated travelers without quarantine measures or testing requirements—up from 18 markets (28% of 2019 international demand) in mid-February.

•             38 markets representing 65% of 2019 international demand are open to vaccinated travelers with no quarantine requirements—up from 28 markets (50% of 2019 international demand) in mid-February.

Repeated surveys of passengers by IATA during the pandemic has shown that testing and especially quarantine are major barriers to travel.

The regional variations in the degree of openness among the markets are stark.

Region  # of markets in top 50    # of markets open to vaccinated travelers with no quarantine requirements

Asia Pacific          16           6

Americas             9              9

Europe 20           18

Middle East        3              3

Africa    2              2

Travel in Asia remains heavily compromised by COVID restrictions. While North American and European international traffic rebounded to -42% of their 2019 peaks last year, traffic in Asia Pacific remained at -88%. Even in this region, however, there has been some progress, with India and Malaysia among the countries recently announcing relaxation of restrictions.

The easing of measures reflects the growing consensus that travel restrictions such as border closures and quarantine do little to control the spread of COVID-19. A recent report by OXERA and Edge Health, looking at the spread of the Omicron variant in Europe, concluded that travel restrictions may only delay the peak of a wave by a few days.

“The world is largely open for travel. As population immunity grows, more governments are managing COVID-19 through surveillance, as they do for other endemic viruses. That is great news for a growing number of destinations that will receive a much-needed economic boost from the upcoming Easter and Northern Summer travel seasons. Asia is the outlier. Hopefully recent relaxations including Australia, Bangladesh, New Zealand, Pakistan, and the Philippines are paving the way towards restoring the freedom to travel that is more broadly enjoyed in other parts of the world,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

By Damian Brett

Amazon Air B767

Amazon Air has rapidly expanded its air cargo operations in Europe over the last six months and its overall fleet looks set to hit 100 aircraft by the end of the year.

A new report by the Chaddick Institute for Metropolitan Development shows that e-commerce giant Amazon’s air cargo arm has expanded its flying in Europe to an average of 38 daily flights in March 2022 compared with 18 daily flights in August 2021.

Its network in Europe is operated by Dublin-based ASL Airlines and now covers nine locations: East Midlands, Hannover, Paris CDG, Cologne-Bonn, Milan, Rome, Katowice, Leipzig, Barcelona and Madrid.

The report said the largest increase in flying in Europe was through Amazon’s “partner flights” rather than on Amazon Air registered aircraft.

“Flights on Amazon Air-registered planes within Europe grew from 8.2 daily in August to 18.2 this month,” the report states. “Partner flights grew even more dramatically, our analysis suggests, rising from just a handful to around 20–24 daily.”

Amazon Air’s busiest location in Europe was Cologne-Bonn – also a hub for UPS – and Paris CDG, which each averaged 5.8 daily flights.

Source: Chaddick Institute

Overall, the e-commerce airline increased its average daily flying to from 163.6 flights per day in August 2021 to 187 flights this month, a 14.3% increase.

The report said that growth comes from increased flying to/from major hubs, particularly Cincinnati and Wilmington, Fort Worth, Seattle, and San Bernardino as well as on the previously mentioned intra-Europe routes.

“For the remainder of 2022, expect growth to follow a similar pattern to the latter part of last year, which was an exciting time for Amazon Air,” said the report’s authors, Joseph Schwieterman, Borja González Morado and Abby Mader.

“Its annual growth in flight activity is likely to hover around 20-24%, which, while somewhat slower than in the recent past, is still impressive.”

They added: “Although exponential growth may be relegated to the past, Amazon Air’s fleet, now reportedly 88 planes, could surpass 100 by the end of the year, a notable achievement considering the modest slowdown in economic growth underway and dramatic increases in jet fuel costs.

“Although our prediction roughly 20 months ago that Amazon Air would have 200 planes by 2028 was speculative, it remains in our view reasonable. In fact, it may be conservative, considering that Amazon Air is now acquiring turboprops and that, when the partner network is included, it may already account for 110+ planes regularly in service.”

They also predicted that Amazon Air could acquire B777 freighters as it expands into intercontinental flying. The report said the aircraft could result in flights from the Pacific Rim to the Riverside and San Bernardino hubs, although the full effects of this may not be seen until mid-2023 or later.

By Damian Brett

Cathay Pacific Cargo has ramped up its focus on regional services as its long-haul operations are still constrained by flight crew quarantine requirements.

The Hong Kong-based airline in February saw its cargo traffic decline by 53.3% to 240.5m in cargo tonne kms as its long-haul freighter operations were limited.

In January, the carrier axed freighter flights to Europe and reduced to capacity to several other long-haul destinations as the Hong Kong government introduced stricter crew quarantine requirements.

In February, the airline operated around 25% of its pre-Covid cargo flight capacity.

The airline said that stricter requirements for cross-border trucking between the Chinese Mainland and Hong Kong, as well as the surge in Covid-19 cases in Hong Kong also reduced demand from its home market.

“Furthermore, the anticipated market recovery from Asia to long-haul destinations was slower than expected post-Chinese New Year,” Cathay Pacific added.

Cathay Pacific chief customer and commercial officer Ronald Lam said that the cargo business had been focusing on regional operations.

“In order to mitigate these headwinds, our teams focused on regional routes and we saw encouraging demand on these services,” Lam said.

“Of particular note was the demand for Rapid Antigen Test (RAT) shipments, which was strong throughout the month and continues to be so. As of the end of February, we have delivered over 13m RAT kits to Hong Kong.

“We will continue to support the Government’s anti-pandemic efforts with the delivery of important medical supplies.”

“We are re-deploying freighters to North Asia and the Indian sub-continent to maximise opportunities within the region while our ability to operate long-haul services remains constrained.

“Nevertheless, we are continually looking to increase our long-haul cargo flight capacity where possible, and we have resumed freighter services into Atlanta, Houston and Miami in the US.

“Our total Hong Kong export volumes will likely remain under pressure throughout the month. Despite this, overall demand from other markets is strengthening and we will look to capture as much of this opportunity as possible.”

The carrier has yet to confirm when it plans to restart operations to Europe.

Earlier this month, Cathay Pacific Group reported its 2021 results, confirming it faced an attributable loss of HK$5.5bn for last year and is looking to increase “cargo capacity as much as practicable”.

Air cargo growth figures for January were “below expectations” while the outlook for the year ahead is uncertain, according to IATA.

The airline association’s latest monthly report shows that global air cargo demand in cargo tonne km terms increased by 2.7% year on year in January.

Capacity for the month was up by 11.4% aginst a year earlier – although it is still down around 8.9% on pre-Covid levels – and cargo load factors were down 4.6 percentage points year on year to 54.1%.

IATA director general Willie Walsh said: “Demand growth of 2.7% in January was below expectation, following the 9.3% recorded in December. This likely reflects a shift towards the more normal growth rate of 4.9% expected for this year.

“Looking ahead, however, we can expect cargo markets to be impacted by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

“Sanction-related shifts in manufacturing and economic activity, rising oil prices and geopolitical uncertainty are converging. Capacity is expected to come under greater pressure and rates are likely to rise. To what extent, however, it is still too early to predict.”

Looking at air cargo indicators, IATA pointed out that the purchasing managers index tracking export orders had dropped below the 50 point mark for the first time since August 2020, but added that inventory-to-sales ratios remained low.

On the Russia-Ukraine conflict, IATA said that overall it would have a negative impact on air cargo, but it may not cause too much of a drop off in demand levels.

“The impact on global markets is expected to be low as cargo carried to/from/within Russia accounted for just 0.6% of the global cargo carried by air in 2021,” IATA said, adding: “Several specialised cargo carriers are registered in Russia and Ukraine, particularly those involved with heavy lift operations.”

Looking at regional performance, Asia Pacific airlines registered a 4.9% year-on-year increase in cargo traffic in January, although this was “significantly” below the previous month’s 12% expansion.

“The zero-Covid policy in mainland China and Hong Kong is impacting performance,” IATA said. “Preparations for the Lunar New Year holiday may have also had an impact on volumes, but it is difficult to isolate.”

Carriers in the North America region posted a 1.2% decrease in cargo demand as supply chain congestion due to labor shortages, severe winter weather and issues with the deployment of 5G as well as a rise in inflation and weaker economic conditions affected growth.

In Europe, there was a 7% increase as the region was “more resilient” than most other regions.

“European carriers benefited from robust economic activity and an easing in capacity,” IATA said.

Middle Eastern carriers also registered a fall, with cargo traffic dropping 4.6% due to a “deterioration in traffic on several key routes such as Middle East-Asia, and Middle East-North America”.

Latin America carriers reported a January increase in cargo demand of 11.9% compared with a year ago, although this is “well below” pre-Covid levels, and African airlines saw cargo traffic increase by 12.4%.

10 March 2022   No: 14

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) announced that the recovery in air travel slowed for both domestic and international in January 2022 compared to December 2021, owing to the imposition of travel restrictions following the emergence of Omicron last November.

Note: We are returning to year-on-year traffic comparisons, instead of comparisons with the 2019 period, unless otherwise noted. Owing to the low traffic base in 2021, some markets will show very high year-on-year growth rates, even if the size of these markets is still significantly smaller than they were in 2019.

•             Total demand for air travel in January 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was up 82.3% compared to January 2021. However, it was down 4.9% compared to the previous month (December 2021) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

•             January domestic air travel was up 41.5% compared to the year-ago period but fell 7.2% compared to December 2021 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

•             International RPKs rose 165.6% versus January 2021 but fell by 2.2% month-on-month between December 2021 and January 2022 on a seasonally adjusted basis.

 “The recovery in air travel continued in January, despite hitting a speed bump called Omicron. Strengthened border controls did not stop the spread of the variant. But where population immunity was strong, the public health systems were not overwhelmed. Many governments are now adjusting COVID-19 polices to align with those for other endemic viruses. This includes lifting travel restrictions that have had such a devastating impact on lives, economies and the freedom to travel,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

2021 Calendar year (% chg vs 2019)          World share in 20211      RPK        ASK        PLF (%-pt)2         PLF (level)3

Total Market      100.0%  82.3%    51.8%    10.8%    64.5%

Africa    1.9%      21.3%    10.6%    5.5%      62.3%

Asia Pacific          27.5%    19.4%    15.7%    1.8%      57.6%

Europe 24.9%    161.4%  106.7%  14.3%    68.2%

Latin America     6.5%      80.5%    59.2%    9.2%      78.2%

Middle East        6.5%      128.1%  64.8%    16.4%    59.1%

North America  32.7%    109.7%  59.0%    16.0%    66.3%

1% of global RPKs   2Change in load factor vs same period in 2019 3Load Factor Level

 International Passenger Markets

•             European carriers’ January international traffic rose 225.1% versus January 2021, which was up slightly compared to a 223.3% increase in December 2021 versus the same month in 2020. Capacity rose 129.9% and load factor climbed 19.4 percentage points to 66.4%.

•             Asia-Pacific airlines saw their January international traffic climb 124.4% compared to January 2021, down significantly from the 138.5% gain registered in December 2021 versus December 2020. Capacity rose 54.4% and the load factor was up 14.7 percentage points to 47.0%, still the lowest among regions.

 •            Middle Eastern airlines had a 145.0% demand rise in January compared to January 2021, well down compared to the 178.2% increase in December 2021, versus the same month in 2020. January capacity rose 71.7% versus the year-ago period, and load factor climbed 17.5 percentage points to 58.6%.

•             North American carriers experienced a 148.8% traffic rise in January versus the 2021 period, significantly decreased versus the 185.4% rise in December 2021 compared to December 2020. Capacity rose 78.0%, and load factor climbed 17.0 percentage points to 59.9%.

 •            Latin American airlines saw a 157.0% rise in January traffic, compared to the same month in 2021, an upturn over the 150.8% rise in December 2021 compared to December 2020. January capacity rose 91.2% and load factor increased 19.4 percentage points to 75.7%, which easily was the highest load factor among the regions for the 16th consecutive month.

 •            African airlines’ traffic rose 17.9% in January 2022 versus a year ago, a slowdown compared to the 26.3% year-over-year increase recorded in December 2021. January 2022 capacity was up 6.3% and load factor climbed 6.0 percentage points to 60.5%.

Domestic Passenger Markets

2021 Calendar year (% chg vs 2019)          World share in 20211  

RPK        ASK        PLF (%-pt)2         PLF (level)3

Domestic             62.4%    41.5%    27.2%    6.8%      67.4%

Australia              0.7%      33.4%    43.0%    -3.8%     53.4%

Brazil     1.9%      35.5%    32.3%    2.0%      83.5%

China P.R.            17.8%    -0.1%     3.2%      -2.0%     60.6%

India      2.2%      -18.0%  -13.7%  -3.4%     65.6%

Japan    1.1%      107.0%  51.1%    11.7%    43.4%

Russian Fed.       4.5%      23.8%    21.5%    1.6%      84.4%

US          25.7%    97.8%    51.7%    16.1%    69.0%

1% of global RPKs   2Change in load factor vs same period in 2019 3Load Factor Level

•             Japan’s domestic demand was 107%, which was the fastest year-on-year growth recorded, although on a seasonally adjusted basis, January 2022 traffic slipped 4.1% from December.

 •            India’s domestic RPKs fell by 18% year-on-year in January , which the biggest decline recorded for any of the domestic markets tracked by IATA. On a month-on-month basis, seasonally adjusted RPKs dropped by nearly 45% between December and January.

2022 vs 2019

Despite the strong traffic growth recorded in January 2022 compared to a year ago, passenger demand remains far below pre-COVID-19 levels. Total RPKs in January were down 49.6% compared to January 2019. International traffic was down 62.4%, with domestic traffic off by 26.5%.

  January 2022 vs. January 2019  World share in 20211      RPK        ASK        PLF (%-pt)2         PLF (level)3

Total Market      100.0%  82.3%    51.8%    10.8%    64.5%

International      1.9%      21.3%    10.6%    5.5%      62.3%

Domestic             27.5%    19.4%    15.7%    1.8%      57.6%

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

January figures do not include any impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict which began at the end of February. The resulting sanctions and airspace closures are expected to have a negative impact on travel, primarily among neighboring countries.

The Ukraine market accounted for 3.3% of European passenger traffic and 0.8% of global traffic in 2021.

 The Russian international market represented 5.7% of European traffic (excluding Russia domestic market) and 1.3% of global traffic in 2021.

 Airspace closures have led to rerouting or cancellations of flights on some routes, mostly in the Europe-Asia but also in Asia-North America market. This impact is mitigated owing to greatly diminished flight activity since borders in Asia were largely closed owing to COVID-19. In 2021, RPKs flown between Asia-North America and Asia-Europe accounted for 3.0%, and 4.5%, respectively, of global international RPKs.

In addition to these disruptions, the sudden spike in fuel prices is putting pressure on airline costs. “When we made our most recent industry financial forecast last autumn, we expected the airline industry to lose $11.6 billion in 2022 with jet fuel at $78/barrel and fuel accounting for 20% of costs. As of 4 March, jet fuel is trading at over $140/barrel. Absorbing such a massive hit on costs just as the industry is struggling to cut losses as it emerges from the two-year COVID-19 crisis is a huge challenge. If the jet fuel price stays that high, then over time, it is reasonable to expect that it will be reflected in airline yields,” said Walsh.