De minimis exemption change hits China-US air cargo demand

By Damian BrettDamian Brett19 May 2025

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Air cargo demand between China and the US fell in the first full week of the end of the de minimis exemption covering Chinese e-commerce packages.

Data released by WorldACD for the week ending 11 May (week 19), shows that airfreight volumes from China and Hong Kong to the US declined by 10% compared with week 18, which had already suffered a 14% decline on a week earlier.

“Year-on-year volumes from China and Hong Kong to North America were down 27% in week 19, a fourth week of double-digit percentage decline,” the data provider said.

Week 19 was the first full week since the US ended the de minimis loophole for China that had allowed e-commerce packages to enter the country duty-free and with minimal customs scrutiny.

The exemption was removed on 2 May, meaning it also had a partial impact on week 18 performance, on top of the Labour Day holidays in China.

The US and China have since put their trade war on ice for 90 days, reducing tariffs from 145% to 30%, but non-postal e-commerce packages from China still face the 30% tariff rate as well as customs scrutiny and postal network packages face a 54% (or a $100 flat fee) rate.

This pause may help cargo volumes recover, the data provider said.

 

“The coming weeks will likely produce another twist in the plot after the unexpectedly swift pause in the China-US trade war, leading to expectations of front-loading that could stretch reduced container shipping capacity,” WorldACD said.

“Above all, the 90-day suspension of elevated tariffs has also reduced the duty on China-origin parcels to the US, which could trigger a resumption of the use of airfreight for this business.

“It should be noted, though, that parcels shipped outside postal networks have to undergo customs clearance, adding cost and transit time, which will affect the appeal of using airfreight to ship direct from China to the US.”

WorldACD, week 19 2025

WorldACD, week 19 2025

Source: WorldACD

Looking at demand levels on a global basis, airfreight volumes in chargeable weight terms declined by 1% week on week in week 19, “marking a string of contractions since the first week of April that was only interrupted by stable volumes in week 17”.

On a year-on-year basis, volumes were actually up by 2% compared with a year ago in week 19.