China cargo rate surge flattens following tariff rush

By Damian BrettDamian Brett20 March 2025

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A surge in air cargo spot rates out of Asia Pacific in recent weeks due to a rush to get goods into the US following tariff announcements and a quarter-end pickup appears to be easing off.

Sources reported that spot market rates out of China and Hong Kong had begun to surge around 10 March, increasing by around 20% over the past week. In the last couple of days, increases appear to have flattened off.

Dimerco vice president, global sales and marketing, Kathy Liu confirmed that the spot market had surged recently as shippers moved goods before the quarter end.

“Most shippers had been holding their shipping schedules since January, waiting to see any new tariff announcements from the Trump administration. With the quarter-end approaching, they have now released their shipments,” Liu said.

However, she added that the surge could not be compared with the same period in 2024 – when the market was handling rapidly rising e-commerce demand and modal shift due to the Red Sea missile attacks.

Liu added that the surge had lasted around two weeks and came from all key gateways in China, but had not resulted in any capacity shortages.

The surge came after the US added a second 10% tariff increase on goods from China at the start of the month.

Earlier this week rate data provider TAC Index released its figures for last week, reporting the global Baltic Air Freight Index increased 2.3% over the week to 17 March, leaving it ahead by 4.3% over the past 12 months.

“Sources said rates were generally being pulled up by rising spot prices, particularly on Transpacific routes,” TAC said in its market round-up.

“Rates out of China were rising in the last week on lanes both to Europe and to North America, leaving them at similar levels to 12 months ago.

”The index of outbound routes from Hong Kong was up only 1.2% week on week, but higher on nearly all major lanes, leaving it up by some 7.9% year on year. Outbound Shanghai surged 7% week on week – though leaving it only up 1.1% year on year.”

Earlier this month, Air Cargo News reported that rates out of Hong Kong remained above last year’s levels in February despite concerns regarding the impact of tariffs (see chart below).