Category: news

Air cargo volumes continue strong start to the year

By Damian BrettDamian Brett27 January 2026

Chargeable weight nears pre-holiday levels as Middle East South Asia region leads with 15% growth, though comparisons remain complicated by timing shifts

Cargo waiting to be loaded

Air cargo volumes have continued their strong start to the year, with improvements being registered out of most regions, according to the latest weekly report from data provider WorldACD.

The analytics firm said that worldwide air cargo volumes increased by 5% year on year in the second full week of January, running to 18 January, with tonnages recovering after the post-Christmas slowdown from all the main world origin regions.

WorldACD said that chargeable weight is now close to pre-holiday levels and is around 10% down on the mid-December peak season.

Tonnages were up year on year from most of the main origin regions, including gains from Middle East South Asia (MESA) of 15%, Africa 9%, Asia Pacific 6%, Central & South America 5%, and North America 2%, with only Europe down slightly by 1%.

“Chargeable weight patterns of the past five weeks from each of those six origin regions are remarkably similar to their equivalent periods a year earlier, with the only significant difference being the relatively elevated tonnages of the past five weeks, compared with a year earlier.”

WorldACD has previously said that 2025 had got off to a slow start, which may explain some of the improvements registered this year. Comparisons are also complicated by the timing of the Chinese New Year holiday, which takes place on 17 February this year, compared with 29 January in 2025.

The figures also revealed that of the two main east-west tradelanes, demand is improving faster from Asia Pacific to Europe than it is from Asia Pacific to North America.

“Tonnages in week three from Asia Pacific to Europe were up 19% year on year, with strong growth from all the region’s major origin countries except for Japan (-3%) and South Korea (+1%),” WorldACD said.

Demand from China to Europe was up 17%, from Hong Kong 30% and Taiwan, along with “strong double-digit percentage rises” from Southeast Asia origins, especially Thailand (32%) and Malaysia (26%).

Meanwhile, tonnages in week three from Asia Pacific to the US were up by a “healthy” 6% year on year, but “there were huge disparities” between the performances of volumes from China and Hong Kong (-12%), compared with the “very strong” year-on-year growth from South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia, with “volumes to the US from Vietnam and Thailand, for example, up by around 50%, YoY – as they have been for several months”.

Meanwhile, tonnages in week three from Asia Pacific to the US were up by a “healthy” 6% year on year, but “there were huge disparities” between the performances of volumes from China and Hong Kong (-12%), compared with the “very strong” year-on-year growth from South Korea, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia, with “volumes to the US from Vietnam and Thailand, for example, up by around 50%, YoY – as they have been for several months”.

Source: WorldACD

 

By Damian BrettDamian Brett14 January 2026

Production bottlenecks and extended passenger aircraft service life are limiting freighter availability, driving up costs and utilisation rates

Widebody airfreight capacity is expected to continue to come under pressure in 2026 and the coming years as the backlog of aircraft on order remains at historic highs.

Speaking at a meeting with the media, Julia Seiermann, IATA head of industry analysis, said that the ongoing global aircraft shortage had an impact on the cargo sector last year and the trend is expected to continue.

Seiermann said that aircraft availability remains one of the most significant constraints in the airline industry and for industry growth.

She pointed to statistics showing that the order backlog has now exceeded 17,000 aircraft, which corresponds with nearly 60% of the active fleet and is 11 times the number of aircraft that are delivered each year.

“What this means is that even under the expectation that production and deliveries will accelerate in 2026, which is now the view of analysts, normalisation is unlikely to occur before the early 2030s,” Seiermann said.

She said the aircraft production is faced with the challenge of engine availability, longer certification processes and supply chain challenges for aircraft components.

Seiermann added that the number of cargo aircraft being added to the fleet, when deliveries and retirements are taken into account, had fallen in both 2024 and 2025.

She explained that passenger firms are holding onto their older aircraft longer because of the slowdown in deliveries, which is in turn limiting the amount of feedstock available for conversion into cargo aircraft.

This shortage of aircraft and engines is also pushing up the price of the overall conversion. The cost of a GE90 engine used on the 777 has shot up 69%.

According to IBA, the half-life value of the 777-300ER has soared 78% to around $47.6m, up from the 2022 trough of $26.7m in 2022.

“This is due to both a bit of a slow down in new aircraft deliveries but also a steep drop in conversions becuase the airlines that used to convert passenger aircraft after a certain time of service are now keeping them longer and longer becuase they can’t get any new planes and that means that they are not being coverted for cargo use as early as they used to be,” she explained.

“To compensate for this, airlines have pushed the utilisation of the fleet to historic highs, and on the cargo side, we see now that the average age of a cargo widebody is 19.6 years.”

She said that the higher fleet utilisation and a higher load factor were helping to sustain rate levels, but she added that it also resulted in increased maintenance costs and lower fuel efficiency.

IATA estimates that maintenance costs in 2025 were up $3.1bn, engine leasing costs jumped $2.6bn and the cost associated with larger inventories of spare parts expanded by $1.4bn.

The biggest hit came from extra fuel to run older planes, which added a whopping $4.2bn to collective airline costs.

“At some point, this strategy will reach its limits when aircraft will need to be retired, and then shortages may become even more pronounced.”

In December, IATA predicted that in 2026 air cargo demand would year on year by 2.6% in cargo tonne km (CTK) to 289.5bn CTK or by 2.4% in tonnage terms to 71.6m tonnes.

The cargo load factor for the year is projected to increase by 0.2 percentage points to 46% – its highest level since 2022.

Despite this increase in load factor, rates are expected to fall by 0.5%. However, the increase in demand will offset the decrease in rates to see airline cargo revenues increase by 2.1% year on year to $158bn.

“For 2026, we expect air cargo demand to continue to expand, albeit at a slower pace than in 2025, in line with softening global trade,” IATA said in its recently published global outlook report.

“The slowdown is unlikely to be as pronounced as the general trade deceleration, as air cargo continues to benefit from rising demand for high-value, time-sensitive goods, particularly driven by e-commerce and semiconductors.

“Persistent global uncertainties around tariffs and supply chain disruptions will reinforce air transport’s role as the most reliable mode of delivery.”

Demand growth is likely to be led by Asia Pacific at 6%. Other regions should grow around 2%, while the Middle East will stagnate, and North America will edge down by 0.5%.

 

 

By Rebecca JeffreyRebecca Jeffrey9 January 2026

Carrier plans to expand SmartIST terminal capacity to 4.5m tonnes annually by 2028 and launch a dedicated e-commerce facility in 2026

Turkish Airlines is making major cargo investments

Turkish Airlines is making major cargo investments

Turkish Airlines has announced the second phase of its SmartIST air cargo terminal and a new e-commerce facility to further support Turkish Cargo’s business growth.

Air Cargo News published a news story on 2 January that detailed how Turkish reportedly planned to build a new cargo terminal, although the airline did not release details at the time.

In a press release yesterday, Turkish said the next development stage of SmartIST will enable the terminal to reach an annual capacity of 4.5m tons. Work is planned to be completed gradually during the 2027-2028 period.

Inaugurated in February 2022, SmartIST currently has an annual handling capacity of 2.2m tonnes. The facility includes specialised facilities such as temperature-controlled cold storage zones, dedicated pharmaceutical areas and designated sections for hazardous and radioactive materials.

Turkish is also planning a new e-commerce complex that is planned to enter service this year. The airline said the facility would support its e-commerce door-to-door delivery service.

In 2023, the airline announced it would provide door-to-door cargo services via a new subsidiary, THY Hava Kargo Taşımacılığı A.Ş.

Established specifically for the needs of the e-commerce sector, THY offers integrated air cargo solutions for its corporate customers in the e-commerce logistics sector under the Widect brand.

Widect aims to maximise Türkiye’s potential in the international express market with its wide flight network and direct connection opportunities.

Overall, Turkish has committed to building eight new facilities with a total investment value exceeding TRY100bn at several locations, primarily iGA Istanbul Airport.

Aside from the SmartIST Phase 2 project and the e-commerce facility, the company will invest in a new in-flight catering facility, a Turkish Technic engine maintenance centre, additional aircraft maintenance hangars to increase capability by an average of 20%, a data centre to improve technology capacity, a flight training centre, and an additional crew terminal building.

Commenting on the new investments, Turkish Airlines chairman of the board and the executive committee, Ahmet Bolat said: “In line with our 2033 targets, we are developing not only our fleet but also the robust infrastructure that will allow us to fully utilise this fleet.

“This investment initiative, exceeding TRY100bn and spanning from our cargo operations to our technical maintenance capacity, from our catering centers to integrated operational solutions, strengthens our global competitiveness and is a concrete evidence of our vision to make Türkiye one of the world’s foremost aviation hubs.

“These investments, which will provide 26,000 new jobs in 2026, will increase to 36,000 when all phases are completed. With these steps, we are building not only facilities but also an ecosystem for the future of our country’s economy and aviation sector.

“Today, our company’s contribution to our country’s economy is $65bn, and when we reach our 2033 goals, this figure will reach $144bn.”

 

January 5, 2026 by PLA Editor

association of asia pacific airlines

Preliminary November 2025 traffic figures released by the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) showed continued strong growth in both international air passenger and cargo markets. Travel demand remained robust within the region and across key long-haul routes, while inventory restocking and increased e-commerce activity heading into the year-end festive season supported further expansion in air cargo demand.

Overall, the number of international passengers carried by Asia Pacific airlines increased by 8.3% year-on-year in November to a combined total of 32.9 million. Measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), demand grew by 9.0% compared to the same month in 2024, outpacing the 8.0% expansion in available seat capacity. As a result, the average international passenger load factor rose by 0.8 percentage points to 83.2% for the month.

Reflecting increased export activity from Asian economies, particularly in South-East Asia and India, Asia Pacific carriers recorded a 6.2% year-on-year increase in international air cargo demand, as measured in freight tonne kilometres (FTK), in November. Offered freight capacity rose by 7.2% year-on-year, resulting in a marginal 0.6 percentage point decline in the average international freight load factor to 61.9% for the month.

Commenting on the results, Mr. Subhas Menon, AAPA Director General, said, “Continued robust growth in both leisure and business travel propelled passenger demand higher in November, contributing to a solid 10% increase in the number of international passengers carried for the first eleven months of the year, to a total of 355 million.”

“Meanwhile, Asian carriers benefitted from strong demand for the timely shipment of goods, consistent with past traffic trends for this time of the year. Overall, air cargo demand remained resilient over the year, rising by 5.6% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, as supply chains increasingly shifted towards other economies in Asia.”

Looking ahead, Mr. Menon concluded, “The overall outlook is positive, with passenger demand expected to record further growth in 2026. Intensifying market competition is placing pressure on yields, while airlines continue to face cost pressures arising from persistent supply chain challenges. Although the decline in oil prices provides some relief, airlines remain vigilant in managing costs to maintain profitability.”

8 January 2026   No. 1

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) released data for November 2025 global air cargo markets showing:

• Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 5.5% compared to November 2024 levels (+6.9% for international operations).
• Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 4.7% compared to November 2024 (+6.5% for international operations).

“Air cargo demand grew 5.5% year-on-year in November 2025, boosted by shippers prioritizing timely delivery in the lead-up to the year-end holiday season. Strong emerging market demand and selective Middle Eastern growth more than made-up for softness in the Americas amid ongoing adjustment to the new US tariff regime. Globally, the fourth quarter for air cargo was resilient as strategic re-routing of trade shaped performance across key markets. The strong end for 2025 bodes well for the air cargo industry as it enters the new year,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Several factors in the operating environment should be noted:

• The global goods trade grew by 3.2% year-on-year in October.
• Jet fuel prices rose 5.9% in November despite falling crude prices, driven by refinery disruptions, EU restrictions on Russian-derived products, and limited spare refining capacity, pushing crack spreads close to double last year’s levels.
• Global manufacturing sentiment strengthened in November, with the PMI rising for the fourth consecutive month to reach 51.17. New export orders improved slightly to 49.87, but remained below the 50-point expansion threshold, reflecting ongoing caution amid tariff uncertainty.

Air cargo market in detail – November 2025

November 2025

(% year-on-year)             World share1     CTK        ACTK     CLF (%-pt)           CLF (level)

Total Market      100%     5.5%      4.7%      0.4%      49.1%

Africa    2.0%      15.6%    18.1%    -0.9%     44.2%

Asia Pacific          34.3%    10.3%    8.4%      0.9%      50.2%

Europe 21.5%    5.8%      4.1%      0.9%      57.9%

Latin America and Caribbean      2.9%      -4.8%     -3.0%     -0.7%     39.6%

Middle East        13.6%    7.4%      11.0%    -1.6%     47.8%

North America  25.7%    -1.6%     -2.3%     0.3%      44.1%

1% of industry CTKs in 2024

November Regional Performance

Asia-Pacific airlines saw a 10.3% year-on-year growth in air cargo demand in November. Capacity increased by 8.4% year-on-year.

North American carriers saw a 1.6% year-on-year decrease in growth for air cargo in November. Capacity decreased by 2.3% year-on-year.

European carriers saw a 5.8% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in November. Capacity increased 4.1% year-on-year.

Middle Eastern carriers saw a 7.4% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in November. Capacity increased by 11.0% year-on-year.

Latin American and Caribbean carriers saw a 4.8% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in November, the weakest performance of all regions. Capacity decreased by 3.0% year-on-year.

African airlines saw a 15.6% year-on-year increase in demand for air cargo in November, the strongest rise of all regions. Capacity increased by 18.1% year-on-year.

Trade Lane Growth

Air freight volumes in November 2025 increased across all major trade corridors.

 

Trade Lane          YOY Growth       Notes    Market Share of Industry*

Asia-North America        +1.8%    1 month of growth          24.6%

Europe-Asia       +11.7% 33 consecutive months of growth            20.4%

Middle East-Europe        +5.4%    1 month of growth          5.6%

Middle East-Asia              +11.1% 9 consecutive months of growth               7.3%

Within Asia         +15.8% 25 consecutive months of growth            7.0%

Within Europe   -4.9%     4 consecutive months of decline               2.0%

North America-Europe  +5.0%    22 consecutive months of growth            13.3%

Africa-Asia          +9.5%    5 consecutive months of growth               1.4%

 

 

By Rebecca JeffreyRebecca Jeffrey12 December 2025

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Investigation uncovers three separate alleged schemes involving fraudulent invoices and kickbacks to secure cargo contracts

Worawee-Meepianshutterstock_2259492687

Individuals in the US air cargo industry have been charged with alleged bribery and money laundering crimes committed over several years to secure favourable contracts.

New York State Attorney General Letitia James said in a press release that an investigation by the Office of the Attorney General (OAG) and the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey (Port Authority) had uncovered three alleged bribery and money laundering schemes by companies working out of New York JFK Airport.

At this stage, the charges in the indictments are merely allegations and the defendants are presumed innocent unless and until proven guilty in a court of law.

The accused had allegedly used fraudulent invoices and cash payments to bribe an airline employee in order to secure contracts for cargo companies they owned.

In the first indictment, the charged co-conspirators allegedly agreed to pay an airline employee cash every quarter and paid for trips, as well as meals and other expenses incurred on the trips, in exchange for receiving continued contracts.

The second indictment alleged a separate bribery scheme where an airline employee at the airport agreed to ensure its business in exchange for a percentage of earnings achieved through the contract.

The third alleged scheme involved another company with an airline employee receiving two or three dollars each time a product was sold to the airline. The money was allegedly paid through an intermediary company that would keep half of the money, the press release claimed.

“We’re grateful for our strong partnership with the Attorney General’s Office that helped us uncover these alleged schemes inside JFK’s cargo operations,” said Port Authority inspector general John Gay.

“Blatant bribes, fake invoices, and vacation kickbacks have no place in an environment that depends on honesty and accountability. Our office will continue to pursue anyone who attempts to compromise the safety and integrity of the region’s critical transportation infrastructure.”

Airports Council International Asia-Pacific & Middle East (ACI APAC & MID), the trade body representing over 600 airports, released its latest outlook on air cargo performance across the region, highlighting stabilising demand, recovering supply chains, and long-term growth until 2028.

The updated version of ACI APAC & MID’s Short Term Forecast 2025-2028, developed with OAG, projects Asia-Pacific air cargo volumes to grow 4.3% CAGR through 2028, while the Middle East is expected to expand at a 3.3% CAGR.

Asia-Pacific continues to lead global air cargo, driven by its strong manufacturing base, particularly in semiconductors and electronics, along with expanding cross-border e-commerce networks and its significant demographic scale. Together, these structural advantages are expected to sustain the region’s cargo leadership well into the future.

The Middle East’s location at the crossroads of Europe, Asia, and Africa has strengthened its position as a major hub for air cargo, supporting trade and attracting global logistics players. Ongoing economic development, large urban projects, and rising demand for advanced logistics services are further accelerating the region’s growth in global air freight.

Director General of ACI Asia-Pacific & Middle East Stefano Baronci, said, “The resurgence of cargo, particularly significant in the first 10 months of the year in Asia-Pacific, powered by e-commerce and manufacturing shifts, highlights the region’s underlying economic resilience. Despite geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties, over the next three years, we expect Asia-Pacific to continue to play the lion’s share in terms of cargo growth. To prepare for this, over the next 10 years, airports in both Asia-Pacific and Middle East will invest extensively to add 71 million tonnes of additional cargo capacity.  This growth trajectory requires supportive policies and coordinated planning across the cargo supply chain.”

Asia-Pacific outlook 2025-2028

Southern Asia is projected to grow at 5.5% CAGR through 2028, boosted by India’s strong economic outlook. The forecast shows South-Eastern Asia growing at 5.2%, driven by its rising role in China+1 manufacturing, while China is projected to grow at 4.4%, supported by strong cross-border e-commerce.

Eastern Asia is expected to grow 2.6% CAGR to 2028, supported by steady export recovery.

Oceania is projected to achieve a CAGR of 3.7%, indicating a steady increase in demand, driven by the continuous expansion of e-commerce, strong investment, and steady consumer demand.

Middle East outlook 2025-2028

 

The Middle East air cargo market is projected to continue its upward trajectory in the near term. Cargo volumes are forecast to grow at 3.3% CAGR from 2025 through 2028, outpacing some other regions like Europe and the United States in terms of percentage growth.

Gulf airports are investing heavily through 2028, adding cargo terminals, upgrading technology, and expanding cool-chain capacity to support faster, more efficient cargo handling.

Surging online retail and cross-border e-commerce, especially flows from Asia, are boosting demand. Operators are expanding express networks and automation to manage rising parcel volumes.

Adoption of AI-enabled cargo management, digital booking platforms, and automated systems is strengthening efficiency and supporting the region’s projected 3.3% annual cargo growth.

Potential risk

While growth prospects remain positive, geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties pose significant risks to the region’s air cargo market. Conflicts, airspace restrictions, and shifts in regional security dynamics, alongside trade policy changes and tariffs, could disrupt key corridors and affect cargo flows.

Other Topics: Air Cargo Network, Air Express, Air Freight Services, Air Logistics, Airports Council International, Airports Council International Asia-Pacific & Middle East, Asia Pacific Air Cargo, Asia Pacific Air Freight, Asia Pacific Air Logistics, Asia Pacific Shipments, Cargo Flights, E-Commerce Logistics, Express Delivery, Express Logistics, International Air Shipments, International Express Delivery, Transpacific Air Cargo, Transpacific Air Freight

By Rebecca JeffreyRebecca Jeffrey9 December 2025

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Trade body highlights sector resilience amid global trade challenges, with e-commerce and time-sensitive shipments driving growth

Generic cargo on freighter

Credit: tratong/ Shutterstock

Air cargo volumes in 2026 are expected to increase 2.4% year on year, according to IATA’s latest analysis.

The trade body said air cargo volumes are expected to reach 71.6m tonnes in 2026, noting that the “resilience in air cargo has been particularly impressive” within the context of the challenges the market has faced.

Cargo revenue is forecast to reach $158bn in 2026, up 2.1% on $155bn this year. Revenue will be particularly driven by time-sensitive shipments and e-commerce volumes.

Despite positive predictions for volumes and revenue, cargo yields are expected to be down -0.5% on 2025, although this is within the context of a slowdown in global trade and yields will still be approximately 30% above pre-pandemic levels, pointed out IATA.

Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, said: “The resilience in air cargo has been particularly impressive. As trade flows adapt to a protectionist US tariff regime, air cargo has been the hero of global trade buoyed in part by robust e-commerce and semiconductor shipments to support the boom in AI investments.

“Notably, air cargo enabled front-loading to deliver products ahead of tariff deadlines, and it flexibly accommodated demand surges as tariffed goods normally destined for the US found new markets. The critical role of air cargo is front and center as the global economy adjusts to new realities.”

 

USD 1.2 Billion in Airline Funds Blocked by Governments, Majority in Africa and Middle East

Geneva – The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reported that USD 1.2 billion in airline funds are blocked from repatriation by governments as of the end of October 2025. A marginal improvement of USD 100 million has been made since last reported in April 2025. Out of total blocked funds reported, 93% are trapped in Africa and Middle East (AME).

IATA called on governments to lift all restrictions on currency repatriation and allow airlines to access their revenues in U.S. dollars from ticket sales, cargo sales and other activities, as guaranteed in bilateral air service agreements and treaty obligations. Restrictions include burdensome or inconsistent procedures to obtain repatriation approval, delays in obtaining approval, shortage or lack of foreign exchange or other limitations imposed by governments or central banks.

“Airlines need reliable access to their revenues in U.S. dollars to keep operations running, pay their bills, and maintain vital air connectivity. Governments have committed to unfettered repatriation of funds in bilateral agreements. With low margins and significant dollar denominated costs, airlines depend on governments fulfilling that commitment. It is also in the interest of governments to foster the economic catalyst that airlines provide by connecting their economies globally. That’s why we urge governments to facilitate the efficient repatriation of airline funds and prioritize this in foreign exchange allocations, even when currency is in short supply,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.

Ten countries are responsible for 89% of blocked funds

Ten countries across Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia account for 89% of the total blocked funds, amounting to USD 1.08 billion.

Country                Amount USD Million

Algeria  307

XAF Zone*          179

Lebanon              138

Mozambique     91

Angola  81

Eritrea   78

Zimbabwe           67

Ethiopia                54

Pakistan               54

Bangladesh         32

*XAF Zone (Cameroon, Central African Republic, Chad, Republic of the Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon)

Country Highlights

For the first time, Algeria sits at the top of the list of blocked funds countries. Significant increases have been reported due to a new approval requirement by the Ministry of Trade, adding to the already burdensome documentation requirements. IATA urges the government of Algeria to remove unnecessary processes and requirements for airlines.

While blocked funds in XAF Zone have slightly decreased since last reported in April 2025 from USD 191 million, airlines continue to face repatriation challenges despite submission of required documentation. We call on the BEAC to streamline the internal three-step validation process and improve processing times to continue clearing the backlog.

AME region accounts for 93% of total blocked funds across 26 countries, at USD 1.12 billion as of end October 2025.

“Political and economic instability are key drivers of currency restrictions across Africa and the Middle East, resulting in large sums of blocked funds. We recognize that allocation of foreign exchange is a difficult policy decision, but the long-term benefits for the economy and jobs outweigh short-term financial relief,” added Walsh.

Transparency

To provide greater transparency on the issue of blocked funds, IATA launched a web page to track progress quarterly, provide background information, and highlight developments.

By Cathy Morrow-Roberson 5 December 2025

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Freight forwarders are preparing for the new year by expanding into new trade lanes, reducing costs, and investing further in technology

Belly cargo being loaded

Freight forwarders described the third quarter as one of overcapacity and softer demand, as the US de minimis ended and inventory front-loading eased.

The fourth quarter is expected to be a quiet one, with some forwarders not expecting a peak for airfreight while others expect only a small, shortened one, at best.

However, depending on how successful the fourth-quarter holiday season is for retailers and the potential need for seasonal inventory, inventory replenishment will likely be necessary towards the end of the fourth quarter and early 2026, which could boost freight forwarders’ revenue and perhaps profitability if there is a reduction in market capacity.

Demand from US manufacturers, however, will likely be muted through at least the first quarter of 2026. US manufacturing indices have remained below 50, meaning contraction, for most of 2025 due to the geopolitical environment.

In such an environment, forwarders such as Kuehne+Nagel and Expeditors International of Washington have found some success by focusing on specific verticals.

Kuehne+Nagel benefited from perishables and semiconductors, including hyperscalers, while Expeditors benefited from technology, pharmaceuticals, and aviation.

“We also continue to benefit from the significant investments being made by our technology customers in artificial intelligence infrastructure,” noted Expeditors’ executives in the company’s third-quarter earnings announcement.

Besides specialisation across various verticals, forwarders are also focusing on new trade lanes that exclude the US due to the tariff rollercoaster and struggles to keep up with customs changes as they relate to threats of and actual tariff changes.

DHL Group chief executive, Tobias Meyer, said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call in early November: “I think most notably that was visible in the September export figures of China, where trade to the US was down 27%, but you had double-digit growth in the trade with Southeast Asia, with the trade of Europe as well, and particularly the trade to the Middle East and Africa was growing a lot, Latin America as well.

 

“These being long-haul trades and that compensating for some of the decoupling that we see as it relates to the US, which clearly has a lower share of participation in global trade as is increasingly replaced by China as the most important trading partner for many countries in the world.”

Expeditors International is perhaps the exception. It historically has had a strong US customs brokerage offering.

During the third quarter, it benefited from this strength as noted by its recent earnings announcement: “All of our businesses within this category [customs brokerage] continued to generate strong growth.

“The products and services in this group tend to be more stable than those in our air and ocean businesses. Our customs brokerage business continues to deliver strong growth, given the high demand for our services due to the dynamic trade environment.”

As forwarders enter 2026, they are also focusing on cost control. For example, as it integrates with the former DB Schenker, DSV plans to continue to monitor activity levels across its organisation and will adjust capacity and its cost base as necessary.

Meanwhile, Kuehne+Nagel announced layoffs and “facilities-related costs and a basket of other variable expenses,” according to chief financial officer Markus Blanka-Graff.

In addition to cost reductions, Kuehne+Nagel is reviewing “large language models and digital agent capabilities” and “will further identify areas where we can leverage digital agents, which should help us to reduce our cost to serve”, chief executive Stefan Paul said during the company’s third-quarter earnings call.

Expect more forwarders to embrace ‘digital agents’ to reduce costs. CH Robinson, for example, highlighted its investments in artificial intelligence (AI) within its overall business by improving its productivity and operational performance by automating tasks that free up its employees to focus on more strategic, higher-value work, according to chief executive David Bozeman.

According to early 2026 outlooks, volatility will be the norm instead of the exception. While tariff tensions have temporarily eased, the path ahead remains unsettled, as higher borrowing costs, shifting fiscal policies, and elevated geopolitical risks weigh on growth prospects.

“We are focused on aligning our operating cost structure with a lower growth environment, while continuing to make strategic investments in high return areas to drive sustainable, profitable, and capital efficient growth,” according to Expeditors International chief financial officer David A. Hackett.

Indeed, most, if not all, the top global freight forwarders will follow Expeditors International’s lead as 2026 draws near.