Air cargo demand growth slows again in January

By Rebecca JeffreyRebecca Jeffrey27 February 2025

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January marked the 18th consecutive month of growth for the air cargo industry, but the rate of improvement continues to decelerate and yields and cargo load factors are down.

Total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 3.2% compared to January 2024 levels, the latest data from IATA shows. However, growth rates have been decelerating since September.

Capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 6.8% compared to January 2024. Meanwhile, Cargo Load Factor (CLF) declined to 43.9%, the lowest in 17 months.

“January marked 18 consecutive months of growth for air cargo, but the month’s 3.2% year-on-year growth is a moderation from double-digit peaks in 2024. Similarly, yields, while still above January 2024 levels, saw a 9.9% decline from December as cargo load factors also declined by an average of 1.5 percentage points,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general.

“While external factors such as trade growth, declining fuel costs and expanding e-commerce remain positive for air cargo, it is important to closely watch the evolution of market conditions at this time. In particular, the wild card is the potential for tariff-driven trade policies from the US Trump Administration. Fortunately, the air cargo industry is well practiced at dealing with shifts in the operating environment.”

Looking at the wider operating environment, IATA noted both economic growth and inflation.

Year on year, industrial production rose 2.6% in December. Global goods trade grew for a ninth consecutive month, reporting a 3.3% increase in December.

The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for global manufacturing output was above the 50-mark for January, indicating growth. At 50.62, this was the highest reading since July 2024, said IATA. The PMI for new export orders rose to 49.37, remaining just shy of the 50-mark, which is the growth threshold.

In January, consumer inflation in the US and in Europe both rose by 0.1 percentage points to 3% and 2.8% respectively. Chinese consumer inflation rebounded to 0.5% in January, after progressively falling to 0.1% in the previous four months.